FEMA Mistakenly Orders Evacuation of Suffolk County, But Real Dangers Loom as Hermine Approaches

UPDATE 10:30 a.m. Sunday: Hermine's Track, Timeline Shifts, What That Means for Long Island [LIVE BEACH CAM]

Suffolk County residents were scrambling to pack their bags Saturday night after a warning sent out by the Federal Emergency Management Agency indicated that the entire county was under an evacuation order due to Tropical Storm Hermine. That turned out to be a rather large mistake.

"An inaccurate message went out this evening from a federal emergency management authority to some Suffolk County residents stating that all Suffolk County residents must evacuate," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said. "THAT WAS INCORRECT – A second message has been disseminated to clarify that a VOLUNTARY evacuation is in effect for FIRE ISLAND ONLY starting immediately."

Coastal residents on Long Island, however, should be prepared to evacuate their homes if the need arises as Hermine gets set to lash Long Island for several days. (For continued updates on the storm, including news on power outages and road closures, sign up for Patch news alerts here.)

Bellone declared a state of emergency for Suffolk county at 3 p.m. Saturday and issued a voluntary evacuation of Fire Island, which is teeming with throngs of visitors for the holiday weekend.

“This is a potentially dangerous storm that could produce significant flooding on Fire Island and along the South Shore,” Bellone said. “Although this storm will not hit us directly, the storm could potentially be worse in some ways. It appears the storm will sit off the coast for two to three days."

Bellone said "it is of critical importance that those with medical conditions and certain seniors evacuate [Fire Island] as access to higher-level medical assistance may not be available."

Ferries to and from Fire Island may not be able to run beginning Sunday afternoon.

There are no other evacuation orders currently in place, but Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano is urging coastal residents to familiarize themselves with evacuation routes and secure their property.

"Although the storm track could change, the time is now to prepare as citizens residing at or near shorelines may be asked to evacuate their homes," he said.

The worst impacts from Hermine, which had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph at 8 p.m. Saturday and was located off the coast of the Virginia-North Carolina border, are expected along the Jersey Shore, according to New York Metro Weather. But the Long Island coast may also suffer effects similar to the damage inflicted by Hurricane Irene in 2011.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Long Island and New York City.

Conditions will remain dry through daybreak Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Winds will start to increase near the coast toward daybreak, with gusts near 30 mph possible.

Winds are forecast to be strongest Monday through early Tuesday and then they are forecast to decrease more thereafter as Hermine starts to move farther offshore and weakens.

The wind could cause some minor damage to homes, but it's the storm surge along the coast that could bring the most destruction. There is the potential for 2-4 feet of storm surge inundation within surge prone areas, the NWS said. The "window of concern" begins early Sunday afternoon. See this map for specific locations that are expected to see storm surge flooding.

"It is very important that all shore areas under the tropical storm warning to prepare for moderate to severe coastal flooding over four or five high tide cycles," Long Island meteorologist Joe Cioffi wrote on his website. "Track will mean everything."

If your home is exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being officially recommended, the NWS said.

Hermine is also expected to bring significant beach erosion to the region. All ocean beaches on Long Island are closed starting on Sunday due to dangerous rip currents, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Saturday.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone gives a storm update during a press conference Saturday afternoon.

PSEG Long Island says it has more than 1,500 line and tree personnel ready to respond to the storm. The utility continues to coordinate the arrival of more than 700 mutual aid personnel from Hydro Quebec and National Grid – Upstate New York, among other electrical and tree contractors from across the United States and Canada. To report a power outage, call 800-490-0075.

Find the latest Hurricane Local Statement for the region detailing all of Hermine's potential impacts here.