Hermine Isn't Looking So Mean Anymore, Tropical Storm Warning Canceled for Nassau

UPDATE 11:30 p.m.: The tropical storm warning has been canceled for Nassau County. It remains in effect for Suffolk County, where minor coastal flooding impacts are still expected.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Long Island, but Hermine, the post-tropical cyclone that some forecasters were beginning to compare to Hurricane Sandy just a day ago, has continued to drift farther east than expected, lessening the chances of severe impacts in the region, but not completely squashing them.

As of 7 p.m. Sunday, Hermine was about 360 miles southeast of New York City and 300 miles south-southeast of Montauk. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just 4 mph less than hurricane-force. (For continued updates on the storm, including news on power outages and road closures, sign up for Patch news alerts here.)

"Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday," the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. update. "Hermine should remain at or near hurricane strength for the next day or so, and begin to gradually weaken by Monday night."

The Jersey Shore, which was preparing for a storm surge on the scale of Sandy, is no longer under a storm surge warning. But since Hermine will meander off the eastern tip of Long Island for nearly two days, a storm surge watch remains in effect for towns along the north and south shores, as well as the Twin Forks.

"The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline," the NHC said. "Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation during
the next 48 hours on the North Shore of Long Island east of Flushing and on the south shore of Long Island east of Rockaway Inlet."

The National Hurricane Center map above shows areas that may experience flooding from a storm surge over the next couple of days (to zoom in on flooding risks in particular towns, click here). Water could reach 1-3 feet above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

Some of Monday's high tide times on the Long Island shore:

• Babylon- 12:55 a.m., 1:26 p.m.
• Northport- 2:19 a.m., 2:37 p.m.
• Patchogue- 1:52 a.m., 2:28 p.m.
• Point Lookout- 4:47 a.m., 5:13 p.m.
• Port Washington- 2:11 a.m., 2:23 p.m.
• Southold- 2:09 a.m., 2:33 p.m.

Find high tide times for other locations here.

Sustained tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) will be possible on Long Island Monday and Tuesday, but the odds have dropped to a 30-50 percent chance (highest on the East End).

There's a 30-40 percent chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday, but no heavy rainfall is expected.

Suffolk County remains under a state of emergency, but county officials said they would re-evaluate that designation as well as a voluntary evacuation order for Fire Island Monday morning.

"Based on the most up-to-date forecasts, it appears that Suffolk County may have dodged the worst predicted impacts of this storm," the office of County Executive Steve Bellone said in a statement Sunday night. "There are still concerns on Fire Island regarding localized wash overs, flooding and erosion but the concerns about high sustained winds causing significant flooding over an extended period of time have abated as the storm has tracked farther east then predicted by the National Weather Service."

All Long Island ocean beaches remain closed until further notice due to dangerous rip currents and high waves, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

"I urge all residents and visitors in low-laying coastal areas to be vigilant of flooding during high tide and to check local weather reports before heading out to Labor Day celebrations tomorrow," said Cuomo, who has activated the State Emergency Operations Center.

Find the latest Hurricane Local Statement for the region detailing all of Hermine's potential impacts here.