This Is The County In The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area Where COVID-19 Is Growing The Slowest

By Evan Comen, 24/7 Wall St. Columbus

2021-05-30

After adding over 24,000 new cases on May 27, the U.S. now has more than 32.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 580,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 8.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 11.3 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH, metro area consists of Middlesex County, Suffolk County, Essex County, and four other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 5.8 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Boston residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 Boston residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Norfolk County. There were an average of 3.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Norfolk County during the past week, the least of the seven counties in Boston with available data.

Case growth in the Boston metro area varies at the county level. In Strafford County, for example, there were an average of 9.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Boston and more than the case growth rate in Norfolk County.

While Norfolk County has the slowest case growth in the Boston area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of May 27, there were a total of 7,811.1 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Norfolk County, the second fewest of the seven counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 10,115.4 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Norfolk County, unemployment peaked at 17.2% in June 2020. As of March 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 5.8%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending May 27. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Massachusetts where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

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This story was originally published by 24/7 Wall St., a news organization that produces real-time business commentary and data-driven reporting for state and local markets across the country.