Variants Driving New COVID-19 Surge In PA: Which Ones, Where

PENNSYLVANIA — As the fourth wave of COVID-19 sweeps across parts of the nation, including Pennsylvania, the presence of new, more contagious variants of the virus has been pointed to as a possible reason.

The most widespread of these more contagious variants, the B.1.1.7 UK strain, is present in Pennsylvania. There have been 431 reported cases thus far, according to the CDC, which tracks the variant on a state-by-state basis. But according to a New York Times report, as many as 50 percent of all cases in the state since Feb. 1 could be due to the UK variant.

Nationally, the state has the third-highest estimated presence of variants, following California and Texas, a study from Helix shows.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health is aware of the presence of variants, and officials say they're working to learn more to better understand the situation, which remains murky.

"Our way of looking at it is to make sure we are abundantly cautious where those variants are present, because they're likely indicative of an even greater presence than even our case counts indicate," Acting Secretary of Health Alison Beam said.

There are also three cases of the South African variant, or B.1.351, confirmed Pennsylvania. Several other variants have been found in the United States — including one from Brazil and two in California — but only the South African and UK variants have been confirmed in Pennsylvania.

The state's percent positivity rate on tests continued to climb for the third week, as it rose from 7.7 to 9.4 percent. "The variants are contributing factors to the increasing cases, no doubt," Beam said, though health experts like the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Policy Lab have pointed to relaxation of mask use and larger group gatherings as other factors in the spike.

The New York Times report indicates that the fourth wave is most prevalent in states where the most variants have been found.

Montgomery County is among several places that has confirmed a growing presence of other strains.

Spread of the variants of the virus was expected and inevitable, health experts say. In addition to being more transmittable, the greatest concern surrounding the variants is the degree to which the vaccines may be effective against them.

The Department of Health's official guidance notes that early data indicates vaccines are less effective at preventing infection due to variants, but that vaccines are still preventing serious illness.

Nationwide, the CDC has confirmed 12,505 cases of the UK variant, with other variants comprising a few hundred confirmed cases thus far. Officials expect the UK strain to soon become the dominant strain. The issue of determining which variant is responsible for an infection requires complex lab work, and equipment that is not widely available.

"The presence of the variants is an issue that we've struggled to have full insight to," Beam said. "As a country, we have limited surveillance capabilities to understand (the variants)" because of the genomic sequencing required to detect them.

Currently, the Pennsylvania Public Health Laboratory is unable to test for the variants, but the state is sending a very small number of samples — 10 to 35 per week — to universities and commercial labs who can do the necessary genomic sequencing.

Beam added that the state is working on ways to improve its detection capabilities, but did not go into details.