How Trump Could Determine The GOP Senate Race In PA

PENNSYLVANIA — Much has been made of the splintering of the Republican Party in the wake of President Trump's defeat in the 2020 election, and the fallout from the siege of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Perhaps too much.

While there is a small group of Republicans like Mitt Romney that have fully divorced themselves from Trump's rhetoric, the overwhelming reality remains that favoritism toward Trump is political currency. And he'll be spent without restraint by Republican candidates in the 2022 U.S. Senate campaign in Pennsylvania to replacing outgoing Pat Toomey.

Democrats may quickly forget that while President Biden's victory in Pennsylvania was clear, it was narrow. Millions turned out for Trump. The heartbeat of MAGA is alive and well in coal country and many places between. Toomey, a solid conservative, was nearly censured by the Pennsylvania GOP for voting in favor of Trump's impeachment.

"We did not send him there to vote his conscience," Washington County GOP chair Dave Ball said on CBS at the time. "We did not send him there to 'do the right thing' or whatever."

It's a Trump loyalist mindset that candidates will likely bring into next year's Republican primary, which could become a contest of who better embodies 44's bombastic populism.

With a glance the primary field that's announced thus far, that won't be much of a push.

There's Montgomery County's Kathy Barnette, who lost to U.S. Congresswoman Madeleine Dean last fall, but not before launching a series of lawsuits in the anti-mail-in ballot Trump vein.

Barnette was the second pro-Trump Republican from Montgomery County to join the race for Toomey's seat. Sean Gale, the brother of Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale and another staunch member of the MAGA wing of the party, is also in the mix.

Another man with Montgomery County connections in the race is Jeff Bartos, the 2018 lieutenant governor candidate alongside Scott Wagner. The local real estate developer has launched his campaign with attacks on Biden, particularly over immigration and how it impacts the state. Bartos' image is not based on Trump, but he has praised the former president, and has sided with him on issues like eliminating mail-in balloting.

Finally there's Everett Stern, a businessman and whistleblower who ran against Toomey in 2016. And that's all of the candidates that have announced thus far.

“The way I divide it is you’ve got super-MAGA Trump, Trump-adjacent and not-so-much Trump,” Pennsylvania Republican operative Christopher Nicholas recently told Politico.

The Politico report goes on to speculate that several candidates for the seat are working to get close to Trump aides and others in his camp, including his sons.

Of course, more "no-so-much Trump"ers will enter the race. It would seem impossible that the old Romney-Bush-McCain GOP establishment would not put forth one entry, though it's unclear where the current climate leaves someone in the vein of the departing Toomey. Or, for that matter, any other Republicans solidly on the right on policy issues, but who have also been less than embracing of the MAGA mentality.

There wouldn't seem to be many. One name that's been tossed out is former Chester County area U.S. Congressman Ryan Costello, who is rumored to be considering a run but has not yet formally announced. By establishing himself as a moderate equally resistant to the far left and the Trump factions in his district, he's made plenty of enemies on both sides of the aisle. But that doesn't seem to be stopping him.

The race will be crucial for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate following the next midterm election.

This Pennsylvania seat is the only seat up for grabs in a state which Biden won in 2020. Though there are 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, and two independents currently in the Senate, the two independents caucus with the Democrats, and Democrats hold the tie-breaking vote through Vice President Kamala Harris.