Politics & Government

Trump Gains 3 Points On Biden In Latest PA Presidential Polls

President Trump has nearly halved Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania over the past week, according to an average of the latest eight polls.

President Trump, seen here holding a rally recently in Erie, Pennsylvania, has gained two points on Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania, according to an average of 10 polls from the past week.
President Trump, seen here holding a rally recently in Erie, Pennsylvania, has gained two points on Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania, according to an average of 10 polls from the past week. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

PENNSYLVANIA — Just a week after former Vice President Joe Biden leapt to his largest polling lead in months over President Trump in Pennsylvania, the tides have turned.

Trump has gained back about three points, according to the latest aggregate of polls taken this week from RealClearPolitics. That nearly halves Biden's lead, from 7 points on Oct. 14 to 4.2 points on Oct. 21, and nearly places him within the margin of error.

Trump's gains come as Biden spent time in Pennsylvania last week, answering his town hall questions last Thursday at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Trump had his own town hall at the same time, based in Florida.

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The president also visited the Keystone State on Wednesday, holding a rally in Erie.

Observers continue to point to Pennsylvania as one of several key swing states in the Rust Belt that could determine the course of the general election. And if Trump's recent gains in the polls are any indicator, the race could again be a nail biter in Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 by just 44,000 votes.

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The second and final presidential debate is scheduled for Thursday evening.

Here are the eight polls used by RealClearPolitics to calculate Biden's present lead. The data below includes the name of the pollster, the dates on which the poll ran, and who is leading the poll:

  • Rasmussen, Oct. 10-19: Biden 50, Trump 47
  • CNBC, Oct. 16-19: Biden 49, Trump 47
  • Quinnipiac, Oct. 16-19: Biden 51, Trump 43
  • USA Today, Oct. 15-19: Biden 49, Trump 42
  • Reuters, Oct. 13-19: Biden 49, Trump 45
  • The Hill, Oct. 12-15: Biden 51, Trump 46
  • InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 12-15: Biden 46, Trump 43
  • Trafalgar, Oct. 10-12: Biden 47, Trump 45

The accuracy of polling has been frequently criticized by the right, particularly following Trump's upset victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton led Trump by 1.9 points in Pennsylvania going into Election Day, and 2.1 points nationally, per RealClearPolitics.

However, the two situations are not quite the same. To begin with, Clinton's lead, though consistent through election season, was well within the margin of error. And more importantly, Biden's lead remains much bigger, even after the president appeared to gain significant ground in the state over the past week.

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