Not Enough Babies Being Born In PA To Replace Population: CDC

The fertility rate in the United States is below what researchers say is the level needed for the country’s population to replace itself over time. New figures released by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics show that the 2017 total fertility rate in the United States is 16 percent lower than the required level.

In May 2018, the CDC revealed that the United States birth rate hit a 30-year low in 2017 for nearly all age groups of women under the age of 40. A subsequent survey conducted by The New York Times and Morning Consult found that a big reason adults under 40 are having fewer children is due to high childcare costs.

Conversely, an analysis of U.S. Census Data in Jan. 2018 found that looking at different numbers, like total lifetime births, suggests that women are not neccessarily having fewer children, but instead simply choosing to become mothers later on in life, as Time reports.

The Pew Research Center found, in fact, that women are having more children that they were in the past. The big difference between the new CDC conclusions and the study last year is the rate for women becoming mothers at certain ages.

In Pennsylvania, childcare costs are the 20th highest in the country, according to the most recent data available from the Economic Policy Institute. It came out to $10,640 to care for an infant per year, or $887 per month, meaning that care for just one child is unaffordable for the typical Pennsylvania family.

Only two states in the country had a fertility rate sufficient for the population to replace itself, according to the NCHS. The total fertility rate is defined by the NCHS as the the expected number of births per 1,000 women over their lifetime, given the current birth rates by age group. A rate of 2,100 births per 1,000 women over their entire lifetime is considered adequate, according to the NCHS.

South Dakota had the highest overall total fertility rate (2227.5 births per 1,000 women), followed by Utah (2,120.5 births per 1,000 women). The District of Columbia had the lowest total fertility rate (1,421 births per 1,000 women) and states concentrated in the eastern U.S. were among those with the lowest fertility rates. In the west, California, Oregon and Colorado were the three states with the lowest fertility rates.

The report also looked at total fertility rates among non-Hispanic white women, non-Hispanic black women and hispanic women. For non-Hispanic white women, no states had a total fertility level above the replacement level. Among non-hispanic black women,12 states had an adequate rate while 29 states had an adequate level among hispanic women.

In Pennsylvania, the total fertility rate for 2017 was 1693.5 births per 1,000 women. That’s below the national rate of 1,765 births per 1,000 women and below the level needed for the state’s population to replace itself. A total of 137,745 births were recorded in Pennsylvania in 2017, with the highest birth rates being in women between the ages of 30-34, followed by women between the ages of 25-29.

The NCHS calculated the total fertility rates based on birth certificate data from 2017.

You can read the full NCHS report here.

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