PA Counties With Highest Risk Of Community Spread

HARRISBURG, PA — How likely are you to get the coronavirus through community transmission in Pennsylvania?

It depends where you live.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health recently began providing details on the likelihood of getting coronavirus through community transmission by county. Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected, the Centers for Disease Control explains.

The Department of Education is using the data to provide guidance for how schools should handle their fall starts, as well as how to handle new coronavirus cases within a school community once they reopen.

Counties are rated either low, moderate or substantial transmission risks.

• Counties with low risk have had less than 10 cases per 100,000 residents over seven days or a less than 5 percent positivity rate over seven days.
• The moderate designation means the county has had anywhere from 10 to less than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over seven days or a 5-10 percent positivity rate over seven days.
• Those designated as having substantial risk have had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over seven days or a percent positivity rate above 10 percent over seven days.

The state Department of Education recommends a fully remote education model in counties that have substantial risk of community spread. Just one Pennsylvania county is listed under that category.

For counties in the moderate designation, fully remote school or a blend of remote and in-person learning is recommended.

In counties with a low transmission risk, the state recommends either a fully in-person model or some blended learning.

The risk of community transmission in Philadelphia and its surrounding counties is currently moderate, according to state data. There are currently 41 counties designated by state health officials as having a moderate community transmission risk.

"While a county's corresponding threshold may change week by week, DOH and PDE recommend that schools consider changing instructional models only after observing two consecutive weeks of the same designation," the health and education departments said in a joint statement. "For example, a school offering a blended/hybrid model in a county identified as 'moderate' might consider transitioning to a fully in-person model if the county moves to 'low' for two consecutive weeks."

Here is the current level of community spread by county:

SUBSTANTIAL

• Union

MODERATE

• Adams
• Allegheny
• Armstorng
• Beaver
• Bedford
• Berks
• Blair
• Bucks
• Butler
• Cambria
• Carbon
• Chester
• Clearfield
• Columbia
• Crawford
• Cumberland
• Dauphin
• Delaware
• Erie
• Fayette
• Franklin
• Huntingdon
• Indiana
• Lackawanna
• Lancaster
• Lawrence
• Lebanon
• Lehigh
• Luzerne
• Lycoming
• Mercer
• Mifflin
• Monroe
• Montgomery
• Northampton
• Northumberland
• Philadelphia
• Schuylkill
• Washington
• Westmoreland
• York

LOW

• Bradford
• Cameron
• Centre
• Clarion
• Clinton
• Elk
• Forest
• Fulton
• Greene
• Jefferson
• Juniata
• McKean
• Montour
• Perry
• Pike
• Potter
• Snyder
• Somerset
• Sullivan
• Susquehanna
• Tioga
• Venango
• Warren
• Wayne
• Wyoming

Patch's Max Bennett contributed to this report.