Coronavirus Cases Could Increase In Fall, Winter: Health Commish

PHILADELPHIA — New data shows the City of Philadelphia is taking the proper steps to mitigate the spread of coronavirus, but the fall and winter pose a risk of increased case counts, the city's health commissioner said Thursday.

Dr. Thomas Farley said in a news conference that despite the city's progress in terms of combating the virus, the coming seasons could lead to a regression.

According to Farley, most respiratory viruses are worse in the fall and winter. That's due to air being more dry, which allows droplets to linger longer, he said.

He said other resp viruses start to increase in September and peak around January or February.

"We could see this effect on the virus at any time or not at all," he said.

With that in mind, he said coronavirus cases could increase, and if that happens more restrictions could be put back into place after the city resumes indoor activities, including dining, on Tuesday, Sept. 8

"It's quite possible things could get worse in future despite all the work we are doing," he said of the coming seasons. "If that's the case, then we may have more restrictions we put in place as the season changes."

Farley said he isn't ruling out any additional restrictions when it comes to a potential new spike in cases.

But as for now, the city's figures regarding the coronavirus are trending positive.

Farley identified 88 new cases Thursday and said that figure represents less than 3 percent of the 3,200 test results reported Thursday, a figure lower than the city has seen in the past.

He said daily case counts have consistently been less than 100 and fewer younger people are testing positive, as he reported just 32 percent of new cases were in people younger than 40 years old.

No new deaths were reported Thursday, but 13 were reported Wednesday. Those 13 deaths occurred over the past three weeks, the city said Wednesday.

According to Farley, deaths averaged about 15 per week during the first two weeks of August, which was up from the daily average of eight deaths in July. He said that's likely due to the time between when a person is infected and when they succumb to the virus, as July saw an uptick in cases.