RI Weather Forecast: Groundhog Day Snow Will Be A Bother

In January we saw storms fall well short of what they were expected to do and storms outperform their expectations - that one from earlier in the week comes to mind. Hopefully the Groundhog Day storm to kick off February is easier to predict.

Forecasters are calling for no more than an inch or two of snow across Massachusetts as an arctic cold front moves in overnight and changes rain to snow. It could be enough to impact the Friday morning commute, but not enough to do much more than that. There is a coastal flood statement in effect from New Hampshire to the Cape.

If anything does fall short of expectations this weekend, hopefully it's how cold it will get. After a mild Thursday with temperatures in the mid-40s, Friday wind chill factors will fall below zero at points. Saturday will stay well below freezing, but the wind gusts should ease up a bit.

Temperatures rebound a bit for your Super Bowl party, but it should start raining some time around kickoff, which could signal the beginning of a "potent" storm, AccuWeather said.

The big picture is that Friday's weather could stretch all the way out to Pennsylvania, where Punxsutawney Phil is waiting on his shadow on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2. According to folklore, spring will come early if the groundhog doesn't see its shadow and will last another six weeks if it does. For the record, spring doesn't officially arrive this year until March 20, and that's a little more than six weeks away.

The National Weather Service predicts cloud cover in Punxsutawney and a fair chance of snow. Long-range forecasts suggest bitterly cold temperatures will persist from the Midwest to the Northeast.

"Boston to New York City and Philadelphia may see snow a few more times before the end of the season," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecast Paul Pastelok said.

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous handle given to those varmints that are roused at sunrise for the annual ritual, isn't that accurate a barometer for the end of the winter — surprising considering the ritual has been going on for more than 120 years.

Stormfax Almanac, which keeps records, says Punxsutawney Phil has been correct only 39 percent of the time. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club says its records show groundhog forecasts have predicted more winter in 103 cases and early springs in 17. About nine years of records are missing. Did the groundhogs revolt? No one knows.

The ritual involving Punxsutawney Phil is a big deal in the Pennsylvania town of about 5,800, but several other states have their own observances. Punxsutawney Phil makes his predictions at Gobbler's Knob in the Pennsylvania Wilds, and everyone who's anyone comes out to see him.

According to AccuWeather.com, which will release its region-by-region spring forecast Feb. 7, winter isn't leaving anytime soon. Bitterly cold air will make a return by mid-February, and several regions are in for a lot more snow.

Here are five things to know about Groundhog Day:

1. Before there was a Groundhog Day, there was Candlemas, an early Christian holiday in which candles were blessed and distributed by local clergy. The celebrants eventually declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant winter would persist. Germans selected an animal — the hedgehog — to predict the end of winter, and brought the idea to America. Groundhogs, which are also known as woodchucks, were plentiful in Pennsylvania, where many Germans settled, so the tradition was Americanized.

2. Punxsutawney Phil has his own "inner circle" — the guys who are always pictured wearing top hats as he emerges. They're a group of local dignitaries charged with planning the festivities and ensuring they come off without a hitch every year, but also with the feeding and care of Phil.

3. Punxsutawney Phil is pretty spoiled. He doesn't have to burrow into the dirt to survive winter like less-famous groundhogs. He lives in a warm terrarium built into the Punxsutawney library and visitors can stop and gawk at him any time they want.

4. Groundhogs have an average lifespan of six to eight years, ten tops, but Punxsutawney Phil gets a life-extending elixir — called "groundhog punch" — every summer during the annual Groundhog Picnic to extend his lifespan by as much as seven years. An added effect of the punch is that it makes Phil appear to have gotten a dye job, because his coat might be gray one year and a youngish-looking brown the next.

5. The 1993 movie "Groundhog Day" gave the celebration in Punxsutawney a big boost. Bill Murray stars as a hapless weatherman named Phil. Dispatched to cover the emergence of the groundhog from its hole, he is caught in a blizzard he didn't predict. Trapped in a time warp, he can't escape and must live the day over and over until he gets it right. Murray went to Punxsutawney in 1992 to prepare for the role, and by 1997, the number of people attending the festivities had swelled to about 35,000 visitors.

Beth Dalbey contributed to this story

(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic/FILE)