Coronavirus: RI Hospitals Lack Beds To Handle Possible Cases

PROVIDENCE — Health experts warn that the national health care system will be heavily stressed by a huge influx of patients infected with the new coronavirus, but the pressure on hospitals will vary dramatically across the country. According to a new report by ProPublica, using data compiled by the Harvard Global Health Institute, the Providence area could be among the hardest-hit.

In most scenarios, “vast communities in America are not prepared to take care of the COVID-19 patients showing up,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the health institute and leader of a team of researchers that developed the analysis.

In the Harvard team’s moderate scenario — where 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of a year — 98.9 million Americans would develop the coronavirus, though many will have mild or no symptoms, and will not have their diagnoses confirmed by tests. Slightly more than a fifth of all cases will require hospitalization. (That’s roughly the average number of patients requiring hospitalization in other countries.)

To treat all hospitalized patients over that time, the country would have to more than double available hospital beds by freeing up existing beds or adding new ones.

According to the ProPublica analysis, as of 2018 the Providence region had 2,250 total hospital beds, of which about 69 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 690 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 290 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Providence region has a population of about 1.2 million residents; 16 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus. It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population would require hospital care.

In a moderate scenario, where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in the area would receive an estimated 82,300 coronavirus patients. That influx would require 2,740 beds over 12 months, which is four times times the number of available beds in that time period.

The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Providence area, intensive-care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 82 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 7.2 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

Hospitals have already been preparing for an unprecedented influx of patients. Most began canceling elective surgeries earlier this month, and many have been trying to discharge patients sooner.

But even with those efforts, 40 percent of the American population will be living in areas that could run short of hospital beds. Hospital executives project that they will need to increase capacity by 20 to 70 percent, depending on size and location.

"If we don’t make substantial changes, both in spreading the disease over time and expanding capacity, we’re going to run out of hospital beds," Jha said. "And in that instance, we will not be able to take care of critically ill people, and people will die."

Read the full ProPublica report.