Mother Nature Doesn't Tip Its Hand For Winter Forecast

Want to know if you'll be sledding this winter after a snowstorm like two years ago, or wearing shorts like last winter? Climatologists say your guess is as good as theirs. 

Probabilities for both a wet, cold and dry, mild winter are relatively equal, according to the most recent models, South Carolina State Climatologist Hope Mizzell said. 

"Basically for the winter, for nearly the entire state there's an equal chance," Mizzell said. "It's done based on probability, and there's no increased likelihood for a drier than normal winter, and no increased chance for above normal precipitation."

That isn't to say that the winter will be "normal," or "average," Mizzell said. There's just nothing swinging models in any direction at the moment. 

"A lot of times, people confuse that with normal. That's not the case. There's just nothing driving the forecast," Mizzell said.

El Nino, a tropical climate pattern that generally yields wetter and colder winters in the Southeast, was expected to impact models for the winter in the Palmetto State. Now, there's some question regarding if the pattern will even affect the state at all. 

El Nino is slow to develop, and there's less confidence that is is actually going to gain enough strength to be a major player in the winter forecast, especially for the Southeast," Mizzell said. "With that said, when you don't have a La Nina or El Nino driving anything, you don't have a very strong forecast."