Austin-Area ICUs Could Reach Capacity Amid Coronavirus Surge

AUSTIN, TX — The county's intensive care units could reach capacity by next week given increased levels of the coronavirus, health officials told county commissioners as the region marked a record 115 new hospital admissions Tuesday.

Dr. Mark Escott, the region's interim health authority, and Austin Public Health Director Stephanie Hayden provided a regular update to members of the Travis County Commissioners Court, during which Escott made the prediction on over-capacity. In a livestream of the meeting, Escott said capacity could be reached by Jan. 15 — if not sooner.

He added it's not a matter of when but by how much capacity will be exceeded.

"We're going to surge," Escott said. "We're going to exceed capacity. The question is, how far are we going to exceed capacity. The entire state is in surge. We need a substantial change in policy to more aggressively mitigate the spread because what we’re doing right now isn’t working.”

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Even before capacity is reached, Escott painted a dire picture statewide: 14 trauma service areas across Texas are already in surge conditions. What that means, Escott explained, is that at least 15 percent of those coronavirus-surged hospitalizations are attributable solely to COVID-19 in the past seven days in a row. While the Austin area has not yet met the same mark, it has reached a 15 percent hospitalization record, Escott added.

“It represents the majority of the population in Texas,” Escott said plainly. “We’re in a state of emergency.”

Escott's prediction of a regional over-capacity comes on the heels of a record high level of 77 hospitalizations for the 7-day moving average — a key metric analyzed to advise residents of threat levels — that was higher than the previous record set on July 8 when the 7-day rolling average was two less than on Monday. Also on Monday, another 752 new coronavirus cases were reported.

As shown on a statistical dashboard maintained by Austin Public Health, there have been 53,272 confirmed cases of the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic, with 561 deaths. As of Tuesday, 574 residents were hospitalized — including 161 being treated at intensive care units and 99 placed on ventilators to help them breathe.

In a separate statement, Ascension Seton, Baylor Scott & White Health and St. David’s HealthCare provided Patch with their occupancy levels as of Tuesday. Currently, the 2,473 staffed beds within all three health care systems are 79 percent occupied while the 483 ICU are 88 percent occupied, a spokesperson wrote in an email.

Austin Public Health officials previously predicted ICU over-capacity. Unless residents alter their behavior toward thwarting further spread of the coronavirus over the course of the week following the holidays, the area could exceed hospital intensive care unit capacity as soon as Jan. 7, health officials said on Christmas Eve.

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"As our community decks their halls this holiday season, Austin Public Health wants to remind everyone that your decisions today, tomorrow and over the course of the next week will greatly impact the trajectory of the virus in Austin-Travis County," officials wrote in an advisory at the time, one day after moving the region to the highest Stage 5 alert level for the contagious respiratory illness.

The prognostication was underscored by new analysis from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, health officials explained. The analysis suggests the region could exceed ICU capacity by early January if transmission of the virus isn't slowed.

Such dire predictions prompted the move to Stage 5 of the Risk-Based Guidelines, which was followed by updated orders from the City of Austin and Travis County. In Stage 5, community members are issued specific guidelines to help mitigate illness spread:

• Not gather with anyone outside one's household.  
• Limit dining and shopping to essential trips.
• Avoid nonessential travel .
• Businesses are recommended to operate through contactless options (I.e. curbside, delivery).

Screenshot of Austin Public Health dashboard from Jan. 5, 2021.