Austin Braces For Potential Coronavirus Surge

AUSTIN, TX — Days after Travis County surpassed the 500-mark in total deaths blamed on the coronavirus, Austin officials are bracing for a potential surge of illness ahead of the holiday season.

"At this rate, in just several days, this pandemic will be the third leading cause of death in our community," Austin Mayor Steve Adler wrote in a prepared statement. "This is a serious virus. Thank goodness, the vaccine is close. But dark clouds are gathering, and we’re going to have to get past a big hurdle."

The Food and Drug Administration's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee on Friday recommended emergency use approval of the coronavirus vaccine developed by pharmaceutical company Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech. The move ushers in imminent delivery of a vaccine as early as next week.

But given prevailing local trends, local officials worry about a wave of newly diagnosed illnesses as residents prepare for the holidays. During a news conference on Thursday, health authority Dr. Mark Escott said he's considering moving Travis County to the highest alert level — red — that would require more stringent safety guidelines to prevent further illness spread. The region is currently under the penultimate orange level.

Austin Public Health Testing Sites

"We’re entering the early stages of what looks like a considerable virus surge," Adler said. Moving the region to red alert status would be triggered when the county exceeds 50 daily hospital admissions as a seven-day average, the mayor explained. "We're almost on top of that now," Adler said on Saturday. "Today will be the third day in a row that the daily hospital admissions exceed 50 and it looks like the 7-day average could be up there shortly."

Typically, Adler noted, the daily number of hospitalizations goes down on Sundays.

Chart via Austin Public Health.

"This virus hospitalizations accelerate quickly when we enter a surge," Adler said. "Just several weeks ago, we were in Yellow — Risk Level 3 — and were for most of November. We only moved into Orange — Risk Level 4 — on November 19th."

"Look at this chart below published by the Dr. Lauren Meyers and the University of Texas modeling team illustrating the possible future paths, including the one that represents the mean, based on history, trends, and our current levels," the mayor directed to illustrate his point.

Chart created by Dr. Lauren Meyers and the University of Texas at Austin modeling team.

"This chart does not predict our future, because if we change our behavior we can also change the direction and course of this surge," Adler noted. "If we’re not careful, we could exceed the capacity of our Intensive Care Units (ICUs). We’re able to staff about 200 ICU beds for COVID-19 patients. We only have about 90 in our ICUs today (but we were at 79 just the day before), so we have present capacity. But the person who shows up in our ICUs in two weeks is someone that probably is getting infected about now."

ICU numbers are expected to rise for two weeks or so, the mayor noted, illustrating the need for a risk chart. While health officials have not finalized the rules and guidelines under a red-colored Risk Level 5 level, the mayor said, residents are preemptively being asked to exercise safeguards to blunt the spread of illness.

"We know our community will be asked to be really serious about our commitments to wear masks whenever/wherever around people not in your household and to avoid significant gatherings," Adler said.

Austin Public Health will be focusing an examination into bars that operate under the governor's "restaurant" loophole to see if practices make them unsafe, Adler said. The mayor said enforcement of the rules — masking, physical distancing and the like — will be bolstered to help stem the illness tide. Another measure to be taken will center on recommending only curbside dining and shopping as well as solely delivery and pick-up.

The city also is looking into implementing curfews, Adler said: "We’re looking at best practice for curfews to limit late evening social interactions," he said. "And looking forward to the holidays there are lessons for us to learn."

On her Facebook page, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, of the 49th congressional district encompassing a portion of Travis County, detailed a Thursday House delegation meeting with Escott. The interim health director told the gathering he could recommend the highest alert level for the region before month's end, she wrote.

"We received some sobering news," Hinojosa wrote. "At the current rate of infection in Austin we are projected to move into the Stage 5 pandemic risk protocols (the highest danger level there is) by Dec. 28 or sooner. Things are not good and are getting worse."

She said Escott's main message was reminding people not to take off their protective face coverings in front of people that are not part of their household.

Like Adler, she lauded the imminent arrival of a vaccine, but added that "...the problem is that we are headed for a massive train wreck before exiting this tunnel."

She repeated the now-familiar safety guidelines aimed at reducing illness spread — the wearing of face coverings, adherence to a six-foot distance with others, practice of good hygiene — and added one of her own: No hugging. "I hate this, too. I miss you all. I miss my friends. I’m a hugger. I miss interacting with people in a way that is comfortable and natural. But we’ve made it this long. With a vaccine on the way, we can’t throw in the towel now. Remember why we make these sacrifices. We do it out of love — love for our family, friends and community."

She suggested residents settle in for the holidays, and order as much take-out meals as budgets allow. "Find another good show on Netflix," Hinojosa wrote, noting she had just started watching Season 3 of The Crown. "Maybe invest in a new pair of sweats. And don’t feel guilty about any of it. You’re doing your civic duty."

With the Christmas holidays on the horizon, health officials fear illness spikes similar to those that emerged after Halloween and Thanksgiving blamed on parties and related social gatherings.

"It looks like there must have been significant unsafe gatherings during the long Thanksgiving weekend because infections from then would be the ones showing up at our hospitals now," Adler wrote. "As we plan how we celebrate Christmas and New Year’s Eve, we need to do better. We need to protect a future of many such holidays with all of our family and friends present by limiting ourselves for the holidays this year."

To further apprise residents, Austin Public Health has updated the COVID-19 Vaccine webpage to include additional information about the coming vaccines.

Image provided by Austin Public Health.

There are several coronavirus testing sites across the city. Visit the city's COVID-19 Information portal for a list of testing sites.