Austin Trims Employment Losses, Adds 4K Jobs In September

AUSTIN, TX — The Austin economy added 4,300 jobs in September in trimming job losses while the city's leisure and hospitality industry added positions in three of the last five months, according the Central Texas Economy Report produced by the chamber of commerce.

Authored by Beverly Kerr, vice president of research at the Austin Chamber, the report released this week offers a detailed analysis of the city's economic state. Among the report's highlights:

• Austin added 4,300 jobs in September, narrowing pandemic-related job losses to 47,600. The data are derived from Friday's releases of preliminary Current Employment Statistics payroll jobs numbers by the Texas Workforce Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Austin’s 2.5 percent year-over-year job loss is more moderate than the declines seen in all other major metros.
• Austin’s leisure and hospitality industry added jobs in three of the last five months. Half of the 67,300 jobs lost in March and April have been regained.
• After falling each of the preceding four months, Austin's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 5.3 percent in August to 6.7 percent in September.

Non-farm payroll jobs

Austin’s non-farm payroll jobs total as of September is 1,090,300. In February, before the impacts from COVID-19, Austin had an estimated 1,137,900 jobs (38,000 jobs or 3.5 percent above the same month of 2019—an average trajectory for Austin in recent years). Combining job losses for March and April, Austin lost 128,600 jobs, or 11.4 percent. Growth since then has brought back 81,000 of those jobs.

Chart via Austin Chamber.

Austin’s non-farm payroll jobs total as of Sept. is 1,090,300. In February, before the impacts from COVID-19, Austin had an estimated 1,137,900 jobs (38,000 jobs or 3.5 percent above the same month of 2019—an average trajectory for Austin in recent years). Combining job losses for March and April, Austin lost 128,600 jobs, or 11.4 percent. Growth since then has brought back 81,000 of those jobs.

Graphic courtesy of the Austin Chamber.

Austin’s year-over-year decline of 2.5 percent, or 27,800 jobs, makes it the best performing among the 50 largest metro areas. Dallas and San Antonio also ranked in the top 10. Fort Worth’s loss of 5.0 percent ranks 14th and Houston’s 5.1 percent decline ranks 15th. The deepest loss among major metros was that of Las Vegas (12.3 percent). New York, Oakland, and Detroit are also down by more than 11 percent compared to September 2019.

For the year ending in September, private sector job loss in the Austin MSA is 2.6 percent, or 24,100 jobs, with losses occurring in five of the 11 major private industry sectors. Austin's sizable government sector (17 percent of jobs) shrank more moderately, by 2.0 percent (3,700 jobs), thus bringing the overall job loss rate to 2.5 percent.

Texas saw net private sector job losses of 5.2 percent with all private industry sectors losing jobs over the last 12 months. Total job losses were only 4.5 percent as the government sector, which accounts for 15 percent of total state employment, had slighter losses (0.9 percent). For the nation, private sector losses were 6.9 percent for the 12 months ending in September with all private industries losing jobs. Overall job loss was 6.4 percent as government sector’s losses were relatively moderate (3.7 percent).

Jobs in September are up by 4,300 jobs or 0.4 percent from August in the not-seasonally-adjusted series for Austin. In the seasonally adjusted series, jobs increased by 1,300 or 0.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted jobs are up by 0.7 percent in Houston, 0.4 percent in Dallas, and 0.3 percent Fort Worth, but down 0.2 percent in San Antonio. Statewide, seasonally adjusted jobs are up 40,700 or 0.3 percent. Nationally, seasonally adjusted jobs are up from August by 661,000 or 0.5 percent.

In Austin, six private industry sectors have positive growth over the last 12 months, most notably financial activities (12.4 percent or 8,300 jobs), followed by professional and business services (4.8 percent or 9,700) and manufacturing (3.8 percent or 2,400).

The greatest number of job losses, and greatest percent change, over the last year happened in leisure and hospitality (23.4 percent or 31,800 jobs). Information also saw a double-digit loss (11.4 percent or 4,400) and education and health services is also notably down (6.5 percent or 8,400).

Graphic courtesy of Austin Chamber.

Compared to our last pre-pandemic month, February, eight industries have lost jobs, one is unchanged, and three have gained. Financial activities, up 11.1 percent, and professional and business services, up 4.2 percent, lead; followed by manufacturing, up 1.4 percent. The most notable losses over the last seven months are in leisure and hospitality (24.4 percent or 33,500 jobs), information (12.5 percent), education and health services (8.3 percent), government (4.8 percent), and other services (3.5 percent).

Leisure and hospitality added back 33,800 jobs over the last five months, reducing what had been losses of 67,300 jobs (-48.9 percent) in March and April. As of September, employment stands at 104,000. The last time Austin’s leisure and hospitality industry had a similar level of employment was early 2014. Pre-pandemic, about 78 percent of Austin’s leisure and hospitality industry jobs were in food services and drinking places and, in September, the share is 82 percent. Losses since February represent 21,900 jobs (-20.5 percent) in food services and drinking places and 11,600 jobs (-37.7 percent) in accommodation and the remainder of leisure and hospitality.

Statewide, over the last 12 months, no industries added jobs. A double-digit loss prevails in leisure and hospitality (16.4 percent or 229,900 jobs) and construction and natural resources is down by 8.9 percent or 91,200 jobs. Wholesale trade and other services are both down by more than 6 percent.

Nationally, no industries added jobs over the 12 months ending in September. The largest percent change occurred in leisure and hospitality (21.7 percent or 3.6 million jobs), followed by information (8.8 percent), and other services (7.8 percent). Financial activities is the best recovered industry with jobs only 1.1 percent lower than they were a year ago.

Over the last 12 months, the net loss for private service-providing industries in Austin is 27,300 jobs, or 3.4 percent. Employment in goods producing industries is up by 3,200 jobs or 2.4 percent. Statewide, private service-providing industries are down 435,400, or 4.9 percent, and goods producing industries are down 128,500, or 6.6 percent.

Between August and September, Austin’s private service providing industries added 4,500 jobs or 0.6 percent and goods producing industries lost 2,900 jobs or 2.1 percent. Statewide, jobs increased by 2,400 or 0.1 percent in goods producing industries and are down by 12,500 or 0.1 percent in private service providing industries.

Labor force, employment & unemployment

We also now have September labor force, employment, and unemployment numbers for Texas and local areas in Texas. The same data for all U.S. metros will not be released until October 28. In August, Austin had the lowest rate of unemployment among the 50 largest metros. Across Texas’ major metros, seasonally adjusted September rates are higher than August by between 1.4 (Austin) and 2.0 (Houston) percentage points.

Chart courtesy of Austin Chamber.

In September, Austin’s not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is at 6.4 percent, while the other major Texas metros range from 7.4 percent in Dallas to 9.6 percent in Houston. Fort Worth is at 7.6 percent and San Antonio is at 7.8 percent. Austin’s rate one year ago was 2.6 percent. The rates in the other major Texas metros are elevated from a year ago by 4.2 to 5.9 percentage points. The statewide rate is now 8.3 percent, up from 3.4 percent in September of last year. The national unemployment rate is 7.7 percent, up from 3.3 percent a year ago.

Within the Austin MSA, Williamson County has the lowest unemployment rate at 6.0 percent in September, while Caldwell and Travis Counties have the highest at 6.6 percent. The rate is 6.3 percent in Bastrop County and 6.5 percent in Hays County.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Austin’s September unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, up from 5.3 percent in August. The statewide rate is 8.3 percent, up from 6.8 percent, and the national rate is 7.9 percent, down from 8.4 percent in August.

In the aftermath of the dot-com bust, the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reached in Austin was 6.1 percent. In the Great Recession, the highest rate was 7.5 percent and rates over 7 percent prevailed for 12 months.

Among Texas’ other major metros, Dallas and Fort Worth have the next lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rates, at 7.7 pecent and 7.8 percent respectively, in September, while San Antonio is at 8.1 percent and Houston’s rate is 9.6 percent. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Texas metros are produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (The TWC also produces seasonally adjusted rates for Texas metros, but publication lags the Dallas Fed’s data.)

Chart provided by the Austin Chamber.

In February, before pandemic impacts, the number unemployed in Austin was 33,432 (very close to 2019’s annual average). The number climbed to 138,785 in April. By August, the number fell to 70,449, but increased to 80,838 in September. That level is 146 percent above the level of one year ago.

The Austin metro’s civilian labor force (employed plus unemployed) fell by 128,719 persons or 10.2 percent from February to April, while persons employed decreased by 234,072 or 19.0 percent. Both labor force and employed largely regained these losses over the following four months, however growth from August to September was negative for both labor force and employed. Labor force now stands at 0.3 percent below what it was in February and employed is now estimated at 4.2 percent below. Compared to one year ago, labor force is 1.3 percent higher and employed is 2.6 percent lower.

Chart courtesy of the Austin Chamber.

Labor force and employment also fell for Texas in September after growing each of the preceding last four months.

Additional graphs – Labor force & employment: Texas and United States

Texas’ employment is 597,693 or 4.4 percent below last September, while labor force is higher by 97,071 or 0.7 percent. Thus, the number of unemployed increased by 694,764 or 144 percent. Nationally, September civilian labor force is down by 3.9 million or 2.4 percent year-over-year, while employed is below the level seen in September 2019 by 10.7 million or 6.7 percent, and 6.8 million more people (125 percent) are unemployed.

Chart courtesy of Austin Chamber.

Chart courtesy of Austin Chamber.

The Texas Workers Commission and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October estimates on Nov. 20.

The Chamber’s Economic Indicators page provides up-to-date historical spreadsheet versions of Austin, Texas and U.S. data for both the Current Employment Statistics and Local Area Unemployment Statistics data addressed above.