COVID Variant May Become Dominant Strain In US: 5 Things To Know

ACROSS AMERICA — One of America’s top epidemiologists warns of a possible fourth wave in coronavirus infections by this summer, especially among schoolchildren.

Michael Osterholm, a former member of President Joe Biden's coronavirus advisory board during the administration's transition, told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday the coronavirus variant first detected in the U.K. has started what appears to be a new surge of positive cases in the United States.

The variant, B.1.1.7, is said to be 50 to 100 percent more infectious than the original virus and has up to a 60 percent chance of causing severe illness. More than 15,000 cases of the variant have been reported nationwide.

Because of the variant’s increased infectiousness, there should be extra concern for children who are returning to in-campus learning, Osterholm said, noting that it spreads more easily among youths.

“Unlike the previous strains of the virus, we didn't see children under eighth grade get infected often, or they were not frequently very ill,” he said.

Osterholm said the rise in cases turns a state’s reopening strategy for school’s “on its head” as students become potential spreaders. He points to Minnesota where, in a two-week period, 749 schools across the state have reported cases involving B.1.1.7.

Here are five things to know about the variant and its impact on schools.

1. The variant was first identified in the United Kingdom.

The B.1.1.7 variant was first identified in the United Kingdom in early December 2020. It is alarming to public health officials because it spreads more efficiently and rapidly among groups of people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This increased ease of transmission has made the variant the dominant virus strain in the United Kingdom, according to a report by the U.K.’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group.

The U.K.’s advisory group reports that B.1.1.7 is “associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with [non-variant of concern] viruses.”

2. Fauci says the variant could also become the dominant strain in the United States.

White House Chief Medical Adviser Anthony Fauci said in mid-March the variant has accounted for roughly 30 percent of U.S. COVID-19 cases since it was first identified in the country in late December. Fauci said the new strain has been reported in all 50 U.S. states and that it is possible B.1.1.7 will become the dominant strain in the country.

He said some of the safety measures that are being rolled back as states reopen are a little premature and could hasten the variant’s spread.

“It is unfortunate, but not surprising to me, that you are seeing increases in the number of cases per day in areas — cities, states or regions — even though vaccines are being distributed at a pretty good clip of 2 to 3 million per day,” he said. “That could be overcome if certain areas pull back prematurely on the mitigation and public health measures that we all talk about.”

3. The CDC director is worried about the pandemic’s fourth wave.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky acknowledged a recurring feeling of “impending doom” about a possible fourth wave to the pandemic during a briefing March 29.

She said the United States is on a similar trajectory for COVID-19 infections as several European countries, which have experienced their own surges in cases, and Americans need to “hold on a little while longer” with maintaining safety measures.

“I so badly want to be done. I know you all so badly want to be done. We are just almost there but not quite yet,” Walensky said. “And so I’m asking you to just hold on a little longer, to get vaccinated when you can so that all of those people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends.”

4. The variant could be trouble for children.

Because of the variant’s increased transmission rate, there is a fear children are more in danger of catching the virus as they head back to school for on-campus learning amid a growing surge of cases in parts of the Midwest and East, according to CNN.

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said in a CBS News interview there are two main reasons children are at higher risk of getting the virus: Children under the age of 16 are currently ineligible to receive the vaccine, and students have spent the last year being sheltered from one another through distance learning.

“If you look at what's happening in Michigan and Minnesota and Massachusetts, for example, you're seeing outbreaks in schools and infections in social cohorts that haven't been exposed to the virus before,” he said. “Now they're out and about getting exposed to the virus, and they're getting infected. So the infection is changing its contours in terms of who's being stricken by it right now.”

5. There is no strategy on how schools should deal with the variant.

It’s still early to say what kind of impact the B.1.1.7 variant may have on schools reopening, and no unified strategy has emerged at the state or federal level on how to deal with the issue. The CDC recently even relaxed its guidelines for reopening by allowing students to be placed 3 feet apart rather than 6.

While a COVID-19 vaccination dose is currently out of reach for many school children, relief may soon be coming as clinical trials are underway into the efficacy of the vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson in children ages 12 to 17, according to Scientific American.

However, even if the vaccine becomes more available to children, there's no guarantee everyone will take it. A nonprofit called Parents Together polled nearly 1,000 of its members and found 70 percent of parents have already received or are planning to get their own vaccination shot but only 58 percent said they plan for their child to get one, too.

Osterholm also said vaccinations won’t be enough to stem the spread of a fourth wave. In a separate interview Sunday with Fox News, he said the country might have to go into another lockdown before letting go of students for the summer.

“There isn't a country in the world right now that has seen a big increase in this [variant] that is not locking down," he said.

Gottlieb was against closing schools and said strict mitigation strategies such as greater physical distancing and having students stick to one class group could help curb the virus’s spread.

“But we need to be cognizant of the fact that schools are a risk factor, children are vulnerable to the infection, and that the schools can become focal points for community spread if we're not careful,” he said.