College Openings Led To Thousands Of New Cases, Study Shows: BLOG

ACROSS AMERICA — A recent study by a number of colleges shows recent in-person openings by some 900 colleges across the country have led to about an additional 3,000 coronavirus cases per day.

The research, which tracked cellphone data and matched it to reopening schedules at 1,400 schools, along with county infection rates, examines the period from July 15 to Sept. 13. It does not name specific institutions or locations, but researchers found a correlation between schools that attempted in-person instruction and greater disease transmission rates, according to a Kaiser Health News report.

Just reopening a university added 1.7 new infections per day per 100,000 people in a county, and teaching classes in person was associated with a 2.4 daily case rise, the study found.

"No such increase is observed in counties with no colleges, closed colleges or those that opened primarily online," the study says.

Factoring in whether students came from places where disease incidence was high added 1.2 daily cases per 100,000 people.

Johnson & Johnson, one of the nation's largest drugmakers, has entered the final stage of its coronavirus vaccine clinical trials, the New York Times and others have reported.

The Johnson & Johnson's phase 3 trial will be larger than all others thus far, according to the Times, with plans to enroll about 60,000 participants. The vaccine could also have other advantages, including storage outside subzero temperatures and requiring just one dose instead of two.

Johnson & Johnson officials have said they could determine whether the vaccine is safe and effective by the end of the 2020.

This development comes a day after the United States passed 200,000 deaths attributed to the coronavirus. As the country moves forward, some experts are worried that number could double by the end of the year.

"I hoped we would be in a better place by now," Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told NPR. "It's an enormous and tragic loss of life."

Given a formal name in February, the coronavirus was declared a pandemic one month later. Rivers said that if mortality trends continue, "COVID-19 will likely be the third-leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer" in the United States.

"For comparison, by the end of the year, we will likely have seen more deaths from COVID-19 than we saw from diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, kidney disease and suicide combined in 2017," she said.

The latest widely cited fatality projection for the U.S. indicates nearly 380,000 people will die from COVID-19 by the end of this year. The estimate comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. While that projection is staggering, the loss of life could reach more than 445,000 by the end of 2020 if health and safety mandates are relaxed, the IHME said.

Conversely, the estimate drops to fewer than 265,000 deaths if the use of face masks becomes universal in the United States.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, called the death toll of 200,000 "sobering" and, in some respects, "stunning," during an interview Tuesday on CNN with Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

"We do have within our capability — even before we get a vaccine, which we will get reasonably soon — we have the capability by doing things that we have been speaking about for so long, Sanjay, that could prevent the transmission, and by preventing transmission, ultimately preventing the morbidity and mortality that we see," Fauci said.

Meanwhile, Dr. Deborah Birx, once a fixture at White House news briefings on the coronavirus, is unsure how much longer she'll be able to remain on the White House coronavirus task force, according to a CNN report citing sources close to her.

She is unhappy with her diminished role, according to the report, and has told people she has become "distressed" with the direction the task force has taken.

Birx believes that Dr. Scott Atlas, a recent addition to the task force, has been an unhealthy influence on President Donald Trump's decision-making, according to the CNN report.

Looking ahead to the Halloween season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says traditional trick-or-treating, trunk-or-treating, parties, hayrides and haunted houses should be avoided. The CDC late Monday released its guidance for the holiday, and the news for Halloween lovers is grim.

"Many traditional Halloween activities can be high risk for spreading viruses," the CDC warned.

It suggests low-risk activities done by those in the same household, and mostly at home.

READ MORE: CDC: Traditional Trick-Or-Treating This Halloween Is 'High-Risk'

At least 942 new coronavirus deaths and 37,293 new cases were reported in the United States on Tuesday, according to a New York Times database. Over the past week, there have been an average of 41,490 cases per day, an increase of 13 percent from the average two weeks earlier.

A separate New York Times survey shows at least 88,000 cases and at least 60 deaths at more than 1,190 American colleges and universities since the pandemic began. Most of those deaths were reported in the spring and involved college employees, not students.

As of Wednesday, 30 states and Puerto Rico remained above the positive testing rate recommended by the World Health Organization to safely reopen. To safely reopen, the WHO recommends states remain at 5 percent or lower for at least 14 days.

More than 6.9 million people in the United States had tested positive for the coronavirus as of Wednesday evening, and more than 201,600 have died, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

Stay up to date on current coronavirus news via The New York Times or Washington Post.

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