The Case for Kamala Harris (Analysis, Not an Endorsement!)

CHARLESTON, WV – It’s now happening with regularity, so get used to it. For the fourth time in American history, a woman is on a major party presidential ticket. We saw Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D) New York in 1984, Gov. Sarah Palin (R) Alaska in 2008, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, and now Sen. Kamala Harris (D) California in 2020. While there was a lot of buzz about the first three, Harris has a significant chance to be the first elected. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

“Harris is Tenacious” - I first met Kamala Harris when she was running for San Francisco District Attorney in 2003, when I was a reporter in that market. She was bold, smart, and aggressive, qualities necessary in the sharp elbows of politics. She took on an incumbent Democrat DA in Terrance Hallinan, who had a background as a boxer, which occasionally got him in trouble with the law. Hallinan was a tough brawler and as surly and combative as they come, but Harris won in a huge upset. She then went on to win combative bids for California Attorney General and U.S. Senate. It’s never been an easy road for her, and her willingness to fight hard has paid off. Even her ideological critics give her begrudging respect.

“My Wrong Prediction” - As a political pundit I have a pretty good track record for picking candidates and calling winners in races. As I wrote a few times in the past months, I predicted Harris would make the final four candidates, but ultimately would not be selected as VP. My logic was that Democrats would carry California no matter who was on the ticket. I wasn’t sure Harris could help Biden elsewhere. I opined that Rep. Val Demings (D) Florida, or Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) Atlanta, would be better choices because they might swing their home states to the blue column after they went for Trump-Pence in 2016.

“Where Harris Might Help?” - Being a woman of color, Harris may offer a big boost in certain places. In 2016, with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, black voter turnout dropped 12 percent in both Wisconsin and Michigan, compared to those who voted for President Obama in 2012. In Detroit alone, 50,000 fewer black voters cast ballots in 2016, compared to 2012. President Trump barely won Michigan with a 10,000-vote margin in 2016, and the reason is clear. The Clinton campaign failed to turn out enough African American voters. The same was true – but by smaller percentages – in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - all states Trump won. I predict Harris will spend a large percentage of her time in these five states. Democrats only need to win three of them, (plus every state they won in 2016), to take back the White House.

“She was Tough on Biden” -- Oddly enough, one of the biggest assets for Harris was her harsh attack on Biden in the first debate. Harris scorched Biden for his positions of busing school children in the early 1970s. Harris, who was born in Oakland, California, grew up living this issue. Many younger party members would defer to a party elder such as Biden, out of respect. But, Harris ripped him hard, and it knocked him off balance. She had a sharp spike up in the polls afterwards, but then it faded. While we are told Biden was furious, he also came up as a political brawler, and I’m sure his anger turned to begrudging respect. She saw a weakness and potentially a vulnerable opening, and she landed a hard punch. That’s an asset in politics.

“The Obama Slump” - An estimated 4.4 million black voters who cast ballots for Barack Obama in 2012, stayed home in 2016, according to a study by the Center for American Promise. Yes, Hillary Clinton still won the popular vote, but not getting those votes in strategic states cost her the Electoral College. By selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate, Joe Biden is signaling he doesn’t want to make the same mistake. Biden himself, is tremendously popular among African America voters. After weak performances in Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden surged ahead with a crushing victory in South Carolina, mostly due to his strength in black communities. Then you add Harris to the ticket, and you may have the key to victory in 2020. In 2016, this same constituency stayed at home in droves, and became the margin of defeat for Hillary Clinton.

“Relationships Matter” - In business, politics, media, job seeking, and other endeavors, relationships matter. Networking is king! Remember the old line, “It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.” Now, that’s not entirely true, but connections matter. The fact that Harris was Attorney General of California while Attorney General Beau Biden (D) Delaware was in office, means they knew each other. Various reports indicate the late Beau Biden told his dad how impressed he was with Harris. Those kinds of impressions matter.

“Is This a Done Deal?” - There is always a lot of buzz about a VP announcement, but you can never assume it’s a done deal. You need to carry the momentum across the finish line. People forget in 2008, that the morning after Sen. Barack Obama accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in Denver, Sen. John McCain announced Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. I’ve never seen oxygen sucked out of a room so fast in my life. The GOP ticket surged ahead in the polls for two weeks, only to fade fast. There are a lot of miles left in this race. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii took some tough shots at Harris in the primary, so don’t be surprised if those issues resurface again.

What are your thoughts on the selection of Sen. Kamala Harris for VP? Just click the comment button and let us know!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and most of the Washington, DC media market. He is a National Contributing Political Writer for the White House Patch at www.Patch.com.

© 2020, Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo courtesy: Getty Images