Will The GOP Tax Bill Pass? 5 Things To Know

WASHINGTON, DC — Republican plans for a massive tax law overhaul — an ambition conservative lawmakers have harbored for years — may be seized or squandered in the coming days.

Versions of the tax legislation have already passed the House and the Senate. But lawmakers must work out the differences between the two bills, pass the altered language through both chambers again and finally send the latest version to President Trump's desk — a task that is increasingly facing headwinds.

With the election of Alabama Democrat Doug Jones instead of Republican Roy Moore on Tuesday — which came as a shock in the state heavily Republican-leaning state — the GOP will soon have a narrower margin for error in the Senate. But Jones hasn't been sworn in yet, and Republicans are hoping they can pass a final version of the bill before current Alabama Sen. Luther Strange has to give up his seat for the newcomer. After Jones is sworn in, Republicans will outnumber Democrats in the Senate only 51 to 49, meaning any two Republicans could scuttle the partisan bill.

Here are five challenges tax bill faces on its way to the president's desk:

1. Sen. Bob Corker, Tennessee

The Tennessee Republican has announced he is retiring from his seat this term, meaning he has little incentive to make nice with party leadership. He has already displayed his independence by being the only Republican senator to vote against the tax bill, citing concerns about the legislation's effect on the deficit. He is expected to vote against any version of the bill likely to come before the Senate.

"The deficit concerns certainly have not been addressed," Corker told reporters Thursday. "My guess is it'll be very difficult to resolve that component."

2. Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida

The former presidential candidate made waves Thursday when he announced that he is opposed to the current agreement on tax reform. Rubio is insisting that the plan must make the child tax credit refundable up to $1,100 — a move that would make the bill both more expensive and significantly more generous to low-income families with children. Without this provision, Rubio said, he will vote against the bill.

“I think that Sen. Rubio will be there,” Trump said Thursday. “Very sure.”

Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, a Republican, has echoed concerns similar to Rubio's, and may choose to vote against the bill on the same grounds. Along with Corker's no vote, the three Republican senators could block the bill even before Jones makes it to the Senate.

3. Public Opinion

Multiple polls have found that most Americans are not happy about the GOP tax bill. One recent survey by Harvard CAPS-Harris found that 64 percent of respondents do not support the legislation. Another recent poll by Reuters/Ipsos found less opposition, with only 49 percent saying they are against the tax plan; but even in that survey, only 31 percent of Americans were in favor of the legislation.

With slim public support and serious doubts among the American people, any hesitant senators may be more likely to drop their support from the bill.

4. Health issues

Two senators who are still expected to support the bill face health issues that may prevent them from attending the necessary votes. Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, for one, has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of brain cancer and was hospitalized this week. His office said the hospitalization occurred because of side effects of his cancer treatment.

Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran, also a Republican, had surgery this week for a lesion on his nose. While Cochran is reportedly recovering well from the procedure and plans to attend any necessary votes, unexpected complications could potentially prevent him from doing so.

McCain himself attended a crucial session during the health care debates this year while still bearing fresh scars from brain surgery. So even if he is ailing, there's good reason to believe that if he possibly can, he'll make it to the Senate floor when it counts.

5. Undiscovered flaws

The rush to pass the bill — including last minute demands from the likes of Rubio and Lee — may force lawmakers to make changes to the bill with completely thinking them through. If these changes introduce new technical flaws into the legislation or inspire new objections from other lawmakers, the bill may yet face more obstacles before getting to the president's desk.

Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images