Herd Immunity For COVID-19 In NoVA Possible By June or July: UVA

VIRGINIA — Northern Virginia could reach herd immunity to COVID-19 by June or July, while other parts of Virginia with more vaccine hesitancy may not reach herd immunity this year, according to the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute.

Vaccination rates are varying widely across Virginia, the institute said in its weekly update Friday released in conjunction with the Virginia Department of Health. The institute based its projection for Northern Virginia on vaccine rates and vaccine acceptance in the region.

Herd immunity is when a large enough portion of a community is immune to a virus so that the virus can no longer spread easily from person to person.

Surveys have shown that Northern Virginia residents rank near the top of the list of Americans most likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine, with Arlington County rated as the county with the highest vaccine acceptance in the nation.

Over the past two weeks, the evidence has shown that supply constraints are no longer slowing the administering of COVID-19 vaccines in the race against COVID-19 variants. What’s slowing the race against the variants is large numbers of Virginians who are unwilling to the get the vaccine.

“Even with just 44 percent of Virginians vaccinated, and eligibility open to every Virginian age 16 and over, we are beginning to see appointments unfilled, and doses left on shelves,” the institute said Friday.

“Like the race against variants, terms like vaccine hesitancy mask a simple truth: we can only win this race if we choose to. Vaccines do not work unless people take them,” UVA said.

If this trend away from getting vaccinated continues among segments of the population in Virginia, it will have an impact on "community immunity," a synonym for herd immunity, UVA said.

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The Virginia Department of Health and partners are working on getting the vaccine to more communities, including accelerating outreach efforts and mobile clinics. Ultimately, however, vaccines can only win this race if Virginians choose to take them, UVA said.

Herd immunity is a local concept, according to UVA. Some communities may achieve it and safely return to normal, while others could still be ravaged by COVID-19.

According to the latest vaccination figures from the VDH, 40 percent of adults in Virginia are fully vaccinated and 57 percent of adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

As of Saturday, 6,289,988 doses of the vaccine have been administered in Virginia.

According to the latest report issued by the White House COVID-19 Team released this week, Virginia ranks 26th in the nation for new coronavirus cases per 100,000 and 35th in the nation for percent positivity of COVID-19 tests conducted on residents.

Virginia also ranks 35th in the nation for hospital admissions, according to the White House COVID-19 team. In terms of new deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 people, Virginia ranks 36th in the nation.