Virginia Winter 2017-18 Forecast May Hold Some Surprises

WASHINGTON, DC — Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C., had a mild winter last year, and that trend is likely to continue in 2017-2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In a long-range forecast issued Thursday, NOAA predicted above average temperatures in the Commonwealth and along the rest of the East Coast. NOAA predicted that there are equal chances for more or less precipitation than usual in the Mid-Atlantic region.

This is the third year in a row the weather service has predicted a mild winter. Even with the blizzard that dumped 2 to 3 feet of snow across Virginia, the winter of 2015-16 was a mild one, going in the record books as the warmest winter temperatures recorded for the state.

The authority predicts La Nina conditions will develop this year, for the second year in a row. This means that sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific are lower than usual, and winter temperatures are typically warmer in the southern and eastern parts of the country. (For more news like this, find your local Patch here. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

La Nina has a 55 to 65 percent chance of developing this year, according to NOAA forecasters.

“If La Nina conditions develop, we predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above average precipitation and colder than average temperatures along the Northern Tier of the U.S. and below normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South.”

Halpert told reporters that this winter is unlikely to be as balmy as the previous two, but don't look for a gripping polar vortex either.

“The odds of seeing three top 10 [warmest winters in a row] is reduced, not eliminated,” Halpert said, according to the Capital Weather Gang. “We’re not anticipating the kind of record warmth we’ve seen the last two winters.”

But, he said “there was nothing to indicate” that outbreaks of the polar vortex similar to the winter of 2013-2014 are looming. Extreme cold usually can’t be predicted until about a week or so in advance, Halpert said, so stay tuned.

SEE ALSO:

• Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2018 Virginia, DC Forecast
  
• Farmers' Almanac Releases Winter 2018 Forecast For Virginia, DC
  
• Winter Forecast For Virginia, DC: What To Expect In 2017-18

NOAA's forecast also differs from other long-range forecasts. The Farmers' Almanac predicted in August there would be "above-normal" precipitation in the state. It means that for Virginia and the District, the publication predicts the region will experience a "wintry chill, wet and white" this winter.

"From the Great Lakes into the Northeast, snowier-than-normal conditions are expected," says the Farmers' Almanac website. "We can hear the skiers, boarders, and snowmobilers cheering from here!"

And the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for for Washington, DC, and northern Virginia calls for a warmer than normal winter for much of the state with above-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in late December, early and mid-January, and early and mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early and mid- to late January, and mid-March.

Also weighing in is Accuweather, which says the region should brace for more snow than usual. At the very least, this winter should be colder than last year's mild season in Virginia and DC.

NOAA added that its forecast does not predict seasonal snowfall accumulations, but likelihood of precipitation. "Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance because they depend upon the strength and track of winter storms," the NOAA release read.

Photo Credit: Lanning Taliaferro/Patch; maps and video from NOAA