10-Day Weather Forecast, Chance Of White Christmas In Virginia

WASHINGTON, DC — It's a fairly safe bet that some parts of the country will get snow for Christmas. If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, here's what history says about the chances of measurable snow in northern Virginia and Washington, D.C.

December has started off soggy, with southern and western Virginia getting dumped on in the weekend snowstorm, but it didn't touch much of northern Virginia. We'll have to wait and see if temperatures dip just enough to give the Commonwealth a snowy Christmas as opposed to a wet one.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has mapped out which states, historically, have the best probability of a white Christmas. And Weather.com has its Dec. 25 forecast out, which calls for partly cloudy skies in the Washington, D.C., region, with a high temperature of 37 degrees and a 20 percent chance of precipitation. That's after an expected week of highs in the 40s, so not good odds of a snowy Christmas here.

Here in northern Virginia, history is not on our side. The greatest chance you will see snow for the holiday will be in Allegany County, according to NOAA.

NOAA's "Historical Probability of a White Christmas" map shows the climatological probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 in the contiguous United States. See the interactive map for a better idea of the historical probability of measurable snow in Virginia cities.

Here's the probability of measurable snow in parts of the Commonwealth on Dec. 25, according to NOAA:

• National Arboretum: 6 percent
• Vienna: 13 percent
• Dulles Airport: 10 percent
• Sterling: 12 percent
• Charlottesville: 12 percent
• Roanoke: 11 percent
• Langley AFB: 2 percent
• Richmond: 6 percent

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Of course, nothing beats the actual weather forecast to predict whether it will be snowy at Christmastime. The map shows only the climatological probability of a white Christmas.

"The conditions this year may vary widely from these probabilities because the weather patterns present will determine if there is snow on the ground or if snow will fall on Christmas Day," NOAA said. "These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely."

Based on that, if you're set on snow at Christmas, your best bets are in most of Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Aspen, Colorado, is one of about a dozen places that boast a 100 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

Some southern states and cities almost never get a white Christmas, though New Orleans got its first white Christmas in 50 years in a 2004 Christmas Eve snowstorm that also brought measurable snow to Brownsville, Texas, and its twin city of Matamoros, Mexico. In 1989, parts of Florida and North Carolina were walloped with 15 inches of snow just before Christmas. History shows there's a less than 10 percent chance those states will see measurable snow on Christmas this year.

By Dec. 18, you should have a good idea of the Christmas forecast in Virginia from the National Weather Service.

NOAA based its map on the 1981–2010 Climate Normals, which are the latest three-decade averages of several climatological measurements. As NOAA explains it, the dataset includes daily and monthly normals of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days calculated from about 9,800 National Weather Service stations.

If you're interested in the climate normals in Maryland, use the interactive map or search tool from the National Centers for Environmental Education, formerly known as the National Climatic Data Center.

By the way, the idea of a white Christmas in the United States is often associated with American composer Irving Berlin's classic, "White Christmas," recorded by Bing Crosby and others. As the "White Christmas" backstory goes, the great American composer wrote "White Christmas" while saying at an inn in southern California in 1940, and reimagined the glistening tree tops and other wintery sights from his childhood in New York.

Other artists who have notably covered the timeless Christmas song include Otis Redding, The Supremes, Lady Gaga, The Drifters and Elvis Presley.

Here's the classic Bing Crosby version:

— By Patch editors Beth Dalbey and Deb Belt

Photo via Autumn Johnson/Patch