DC, NoVA Thanksgiving Travel: Survey Findings, Worst Travel Time

WASHINGTON, DC — A majority of residents in the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland do not plan to travel for Thanksgiving, according to AAA surveys for the two states and DC. AAA released the survey results alongside a travel forecast largely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Given the recent surge in COVID-19 and the strong urging of public health officials for everyone to stay home for the holiday, the Thanksgiving travel landscape continues to change," said John B. Townsend II, manager of public and government affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic.

The AAA surveys for DC, Virginia and Maryland residents were conducted from Nov. 12 to 13 by Public Policy Polling. Respondents for each survey included 715 DC residents (3.7 percent plus-minus margin of error), 844 Virginia residents (3.4 percent plus-minus margin of error) and 873 Maryland residents (3.3 percent plus-minus margin of error).

Some respondents indicated COVID-19 as the reason for not traveling, while others didn't plan on traveling anyway. In the Virginia survey, 84 percent of respondents said they will be staying home for the Thanksgiving holiday. Of these, 41 percent said they were not traveling because of COVID-19, and 59 percent did not plan to travel anyway. In all, 86 percent of respondents perceived travel as a risk during this time.

The DC survey found 83 percent of residents do not plan to travel, and 65 percent of these cited COVID-19 as the reason. In the Maryland survey, 89 percent will stay home, and respondents were split down the middle for the reason being COVID-19 or no plans to travel anyway.

As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidance urging resident to stay home this Thanksgiving, AAA expects less people to be traveling than during the 2019 Thanksgiving holiday period. Across the U.S. an estimated 47.8 million will hit the roads this year, compared to an estimated 49.9 million in 2019. An estimated 2.4 million will travel by air, nearly half of the 4.58 million estimated in 2019. Travel by other methods like bus, train or cruise is down by more than 75 percent — 353,000 this year compared to 1.5 million in 2019.

"Although Thanksgiving is typically a driving holiday, it should be noted that, since the beginning of COVID-19, those who have decided to travel this year have predominantly done so by car where they can have greater control over their environment and the ability to modify plans at the last minute," Townsend said.

AAA conducted the travel forecast based on mid-October economic forecast models, before the U.S. saw a new surge in COVID-19 cases. At that time, AAA predicted 1.2 million DC metro area residents would have traveled for the Thanksgiving holiday, down from 1.39 million last year. An estimated 56,000 area residents were expected to travel by air and 5,200 others were expected to take other modes, buses or trains. AAA now says the turnout could be lower as COVID-19 cases increase in the U.S.

Nevertheless, AAA still expects peak congestion times for travelers in the DC region, according to an analysis with INRIX. Drivers in larger metro areas will see increased delays at popular bottlenecks up to 30 percent above normal pandemic congestion levels. Travelers in major urban areas will largely see Wednesday afternoon as the time with the highest traffic volume, but the peak will be after the holiday for the DC region. The peak congestion time is anticipated on Interstate 95 south from the Springfield interchange to Gordon Boulevard on Friday, Nov. 27 at 11:45 a.m.

Google Trends indicated the best time to travel before Thanksgiving in DC is 3 a.m. on Wednesday, and the worst time is 3 p.m. on Wednesday. After Thanksgiving, the best time is 4 a.m. on Friday, and the worst time is 4 p.m. on Saturday.

For those that do travel, AAA recommends travelers following CDC guidelines and be aware of local and state travel restrictions such as testing requirements and quarantine orders in certain states. AAA has an interactive map with the latest COVID-19 related restrictions for all states at TripTik.AAA.com.

Live traffic information in Virginia can be found at www.511virginia.org.