VA Coronavirus Cases Climb But ICU Capacity Ample, New Data Shows

VIRGINIA — With new daily coronavirus cases surpassing 4,000 in one day last week, Virginia is at a critical risk of new cases increasing but has enough intensive care unit beds to handle a surge for now, according to the newest data shared by Covid Act Now.

"Virginia is either actively experiencing an outbreak or is at extreme risk. COVID cases are exponentially growing and/or Virginia’s COVID preparedness is significantly below international standards," the nonprofit said on Monday.

Over the last week, Virginia has averaged 3,837 new confirmed cases per day (44.9 for every 100,000 residents). If this trend continued for the next year, this would translate to about 1,400,000 cases and an estimated 7,000,000 infections (82% of the population), the group said.

Covid Act Now, a research group that draws data from The New York Times, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and state and county dashboards, says Virginia has reached the critical stage in one metric: daily new cases per population.

On average, each person in Virginia with COVID is infecting 1.16 other people. As such, the total number of active cases in Virginia is growing at an unsustainable rate. If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded. Caution is warranted, Covid Act Now said.

Virginia has confirmed a total of 4,414 deaths from the virus during pandemic; three deaths were reported in the past 24 hours, the state dashboard said Monday.

In total, 285,149 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in the state; there were 3,294 new cases reported Sunday. Of those, 1,103 cases were reported in northern Virginia.

As of Monday the seven-day positivity rate in Virginia was 10.9 percent.

A positivity rate of 5 percent or higher is considered too high by the World Health Organization, which said rate needs to be below that benchmark for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening, the agency said.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam updated his stay-at-home order Thursday to modify restrictions already in place across the state to combat the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The changes include a new statewide curfew, a universal mask requirement and lowering the size of social gatherings.

Under the curfew, which went into effect at 12:01 a.m. Monday, residents must stay inside from midnight to 5 a.m., unless they are commuting to or from work, obtaining food and goods, or seeking medical attention.

The state is in the low stage for ICU headroom, the group said.

Virginia reporting showed 2,127 hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, state metrics show. Of those, 416 beds were in intensive care. The state has just over 16,000 staffed hospital beds.

The commonwealth is on the low end for hospital beds in use, the group said.

"Virginia has about 2,573 ICU beds. Based on best available data, 1007 are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 1,566 ICU beds remaining, 392 are needed by COVID cases, or 36% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections," Covid Act Now said.

This suggests some ability to absorb an increase in COVID cases, according to Covid Act now, which lists its full methodology and sources guide on the group's website.

With 3,837 new daily cases on average, Virginia needs an estimated 19,185 contact tracers on staff to trace each new case to a known case within 48 hours of detection, the group said. "Per our best available data, Virginia has 1,547 contact tracers, fulfilling only 8 percent of this staffing requirement. With insufficient contact tracing staff, Virginia is unlikely to be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks."

Another complicating factor in hospital headroom is the flu season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which always recommends a flu shot annually, also contends flu shots are this year are critical.

"Routine vaccination prevents illnesses that lead to unnecessary medical visits, hospitalizations and further strain the healthcare system. For the 2020-2021 influenza season, influenza vaccination will be paramount to reduce the impact of respiratory illnesses attributed to influenza in the population and resulting burdens on the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic," the CDC warns on its website.

The messaging of many politicians is to hang on a little bit longer as the world prepares for a vaccine rollout.

Read more:

• More Coronavirus Vaccines Coming For VA's Top-Priority Groups
• Most Will Get Coronavirus Vaccine But Questions Raised: VA Survey
• Here's The Estimated COVID-19 Vaccine Wait Time

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