Christmas Travel 2020: Forecast, Worst Time In DC, NoVA

WASHINGTON, DC — As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to climb following the Thanksgiving holiday, many people in the DC region might be thinking twice about venturing out of town for Christmas.

Nearly 9 million people passed through U.S. airports over Thanksgiving, the highest since the pandemic began in mid-March. Millions more traveled by car to join family and friends. As cases spiked in the following weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued another urgent plea to Americans: Stay home this Christmas.

Will Americans heed the advice this time around? Not everyone, according to this year’s Christmas travel forecast by the American Automobile Association, but we can expect to see a significant drop in Christmas travelers.

AAA is predicting nearly 34 million people will opt to stay home this year compared with last year’s holiday season. However, as many as 84.5 million Americans may still travel from Dec. 23 through Jan. 3, representing a decline of at least 29 percent. Most will do so by car — about 96 percent, according to AAA. Auto travel is also expected to replace some trips previously taken by bus, train or airplane.

In the DC region, AAA Mid-Atlantic predicts two-thirds of area residents are expected to stay home during the busiest travel period – Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. As many as 2.2 million area residents could travel 50 miles or more during the 12-day holiday period. That means the estimated Christmas travelers in the region is expected to decline by 26.6 percent from 2019. Of the 2.2 million, as many as 2.1 million area residents could travel by automobile.

"Under normal circumstances, the number of travelers tends to spike when a holiday occurs on a Friday, creating a three-day weekend. Not this time under these existential circumstances posed by the coronavirus," said John B. Townsend II, AAA Mid-Atlantic’s manager of public and government affairs.

Those who do travel are likely to see increased delays at typical urban bottlenecks — up to 20 percent above normal pandemic congestion levels. In the DC metropolitan region, the peak travel time is expected to be 11:30 a.m. on Dec. 28 on Interstate 95 south (I-495 to Virginia Route 123), according to an INRIX analysis. The peak delay time is 31 minutes.

In Virginia, state police are urging drivers to avoid speeding and driving under the influence amid an increase in speed-related crashes. Over the Thanksgiving travel period, there were 10 fatalities, up from eight in 2019.

"Not only have speed-related traffic deaths increased this year, so have alcohol-related traffic deaths. Virginia is on pace to have more total fatal traffic crashes in 2020 than in 2019," said Col. Gary T. Settle, superintendent of Virginia State Police. "And all of this while overall traffic crashes in Virginia this year are down significantly. This means each crash has been deadlier – deadlier because of speed, alcohol, distractions and individuals not wearing seatbelts."

Those traveling by car will enjoy cheap gas prices. On average, gas prices nationwide are nearly 50 cents cheaper per gallon than last year.

Air travel is expected to decline more than automobile travel in the region. An estimated 70,700 area residents will travel by plane, down 57 percent from 164,500 in 2019. An additional 13,600 area residents could use other methods of transportation, down 87.4 percent from the 108,100 in 2019.

If you must travel, the CDC offers guidelines on its website, including how to gauge your risk of coronavirus exposure as well as how to know when to delay travel. It also offers a list of questions Americans should ask themselves before making a trip.

AAA ultimately suggests travelers keep in mind they’re traveling during a pandemic and should heed a few tips before they hit the road:

• Plan ahead. Check with state and local authorities where you are, along your route, and at your planned destination to learn about local circumstances and any restrictions that may be in place.

• Minimize stops along the way. Pack meals, extra snacks and drinks in addition to an emergency roadside kit.

• Follow public health guidance. Use face masks, and remember to socially distance. Wash your hands regularly, and be sure to pack disinfecting wipes, hand sanitizer and a thermometer to help protect and monitor your health.

• Check with your hotel. Prior to any hotel stay, call ahead to ensure your hotel is open and ask what precautions it is taking and what requirements are in place to protect guests.

For other helpful travel guidance from AAA, visit the organization’s COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Map for the latest state and local travel restrictions. You can also use TripTik.AAA.com to plan your road trip and help determine which rest stops, gas stations, restaurants and hotels are open along your route.