All Adults Eligible For Vaccine In 22 Virginia Health Districts

VIRGINIA — A week before the governor says all health districts should open COVID-19 eligibility to anyone 16 and up, a good portion of the state has done so.

According to the Virginia Department of Health's phase tracker, 22 of 35 health districts are in phase 2, which is open to all Virginians 16 and older. That includes key metro areas such as Richmond, Roanoke, and parts of Hampton Roads, including Virginia Beach.

The remaining 13 health districts are in phase 1c, the last phase before everyone 16 and up becomes eligible. Northern Virginia's health districts started phase 1c last week and will start phase 2 by April 18. All health districts have advanced beyond phase 1b, but individuals in 1b and 1a may continue to register for the vaccine.

Even when phase 2 begins, a waitlist of people seeking vaccine appointments is likely. Northern Virginia localities have some of the highest vaccine acceptance rates in the nation, based on Facebook survey data.

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As of Sunday, 3,095,395 people have at least one vaccine dose, or 36.3 percent of the population. There are 1,792,546 people fully vaccinated, or 21 percent of the population. The state is averaging 77,100 doses administered per day.

While vaccines are only approved for use in people 16 and older, another age group could be part of future eligibility. Pfizer and BioNTech found in a study that their vaccine is 100 percent effective in children ages 12 to 15. The vaccine makers are seeking FDA approval for use in those age groups. For now, Pfizer's vaccine is the only one approved for ages 16 and 17, as Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are only approved for people 18 and up.

Virginians can preregister for the vaccine at vaccinate.virginia.gov. Those living in the Fairfax Health District (Fairfax County, towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton, and cities of Falls Church and Fairfax) can register through the local health department once eligible.

Latest COVID-19 modeling from UVA

UVA provides weekly updates on its COVID-19 modeling, which forecasts trends of COVID-19 in the state and informs state decision-making. According to the April 9 report, cases continue to plateau in Virginia. The only exception is the Mount Rogers Health District in southwest Virginia, which is seeing a surge in cases.

As for variants, the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK is the most dominant variant of concern in Virginia. The variant is believed to spread more rapidly and may have increased severity based on hospitalization and fatality rates, according to the CDC. However, it is believed to have minimal impact on vaccines' ability to neutralize the virus. Virginia has 349 reported B.1.1.7 variant cases.

The UVA report notes that all authorized vaccines are effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19, even from variants that would be vaccine resistant.

The report notes that average COVID-19 daily cases per 100,000 people totaled 18 per 100,000 for the week ending on April 4. The highest peak average had been 68 cases per 100,000 for the week ending on Jan. 24.

In the scenario of Virginians relaxing health precautions and the variant becoming predominant, the UVA model projects a possible 65 average daily cases per 100,000 people for the week ending on July 11.

"To lessen the projected peak, we must give vaccines time to have an impact, especially as the B.1.1.7 variant becomes the predominant strain in Virginia," the report states. "Do your part to stop the spread. Continue to practice good prevention and get vaccinated when eligible."

COVID-19 data

Statewide, VDH reported 1,227 new cases Sunday and a seven-day average of 1,486 daily cases. Northern Virginia accounted for 347 new cases and has a seven-day average of 434 daily cases.

The positive rate of PCR tests is steady at 6.1 percent for Virginia as a whole and Northern Virginia as a region. On average, Virginia has 17,595 PCR testing encounters per day.

Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations stand at 1,059 statewide as of Sunday, according to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association. The current count includes 246 patients in intensive care units and 137 on ventilators. Ventilator use among all hospital patients is at 28 percent, and ICU occupancy is at 76 percent.

An additional 14 COVID-19 deaths were reported Saturday, bringing the death total to 10,472.

Here are the latest coronavirus data updates for our coverage area from Saturday to Sunday:

• Alexandria: 11,277 cases, 545 hospitalizations, 130 deaths; increase of 24 cases and four hospitalizations
• Arlington County: 14,646 cases, 815 hospitalizations, 249 deaths; increase of 15 cases and one hospitalization
• Fairfax County: 73,326 cases, 3,793 hospitalizations, 1,053 deaths; increase of 170 cases, four hospitalizations and one death
• Fairfax City: 529 cases, 46 hospitalizations, 18 deaths; increase of one case
• Falls Church: 404 cases, 20 hospitalizations, nine deaths; no changes
• Loudoun County: 26,169 cases, 971 hospitalizations, 273 deaths; increase of 53 cases and four hospitalizations
• Manassas: 4,225 cases, 169 hospitalizations, 45 deaths; increase of two cases
• Manassas Park: 1,177 cases, 68 hospitalizations, 12 deaths; no changes
• Prince William County: 43,117 cases, 1,576 hospitalizations, 477 deaths; increase of 82 cases, five hospitalizations and one death
• Fredericksburg: 1,948 cases, 97 hospitalizations, 22 deaths; increase of five cases
• Spotsylvania County: 9,174 cases, 295 hospitalizations, 109 deaths; increase of 38 cases
• Stafford County: 10,476 cases, 340 hospitalizations, 71 deaths; increase of 22 cases