Can Reston Support The Population It's Already Planned For?

RESTON, VA — Reston's population in 2019 was 65,770, according to the latest data provided by Fairfax County. If development were allowed to occur at the maximum levels already approved by county planners, then that population of Reston would more than double.

"If you've maximized the non-residential population and calculated the planned build-out, Reston's population would be about 130,000 people," Hunter Mill District Supervisor Walter Alcorn said, during a recent press briefing. "If you calculated maximum residential build out, it actually comes out to about 157,000 people."

The maximum build-out numbers come from a report complied by Fairfax County staff and the Reston Association.

"We did something that had not been done before for the existing comprehensive plan for Reston," Alcorn said. "What's the population build-out estimate? So in other words, if what's in the current comprehensive plan that's adopted, if that actually gets built-out, how many people would be in Reston? What would be the estimated amount?"

Back when Alcorn was sworn in as the Hunter Mill District supervisor in January 2020, his first board matter was to kick off a public participation process to update the Fairfax County Comprehensive Plan for Reston.

Since then, Alcorn has hosted a series of task force meetings dedicated to examining the plan and discussing possible changes. Having an idea of what was already allowable under the current plan has proved to be a useful metric for those considering changes to the plan.

"The task force is looking for ways, first of all, making sure that the planned infrastructure will be sufficient to manage that build out both in terms of residential population, but also in terms of office workers, retail, that kind of thing," Alcorn said.

The task force is also considering the impact build-out would have on its transportation components. In addition, Fairfax County Public Schools is going to provide a briefing on what changes may need to be made to the Reston Comprehensive Plan to ensure there's adequate school capacity.

"We're also looking at areas where plan densities might need to come down," Alcorn said. "For example, the village centers, three of them at least, Hunters Woods, South Lakes, and North Point have a good amount of high density in the comprehensive plan right now. That's one of the things the task force is looking at. What is a reasonable number for the foreseeable future for planned density for those village centers?"

Much of the density in the existing comprehensive plan comes out of the rezoning process, in which applications are evaluated on their conformance with the plan. In its discussions, the task force is looking at a more concise process for having developers earn density to get them to the maximum amount allowed in the plan.

"By earning density, we're talking about what kind of commitments will developers make to offset their impacts," Alcorn said.

One of the possible commitments being considered is in the area of equity.

"Reston is exactly the right place to start this discussion in Fairfax County, given Reston's history and Bob Simon's original principles," Alcorn said. "It's a very interesting discussion about how can the new development, the new economic activity that's coming with that development, how can there be connections made to underserved communities, communities in the Reston area that haven't had the opportunity to fully take advantage of the prosperity that comes with the new development."

These commitments, which would occur during the construction process and beyond, could take the form of job training to fill shortages in many technical fields and provide other forms of assistance to address equity issues.

"It's a discussion that's starting to happen countywide, but in Reston, we're teed up to really be, if you will, the Guinea pigs for how we might do this," Alcorn said.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed the process some, the supervisor said the task force should have its recommendations ready by this summer.

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