New Model Shows How WA Can Safely Reopen Schools

OLYMPIA, WA - A new study will help guide Washington's schools as they try to safely reopen for more in-person instruction.

The study, published by the Bellevue-based Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM), created a detailed model of COVID-19's spread in schools to show how the coronavirus is brought to school, how it spreads once it's there, and how those cases are exported to the outside community.

“Modeling efforts like this can improve our understanding of how community transmission and school transmission of COVID-19 affect each other,” said Lacy Fehrenbach, Washington's deputy secretary of COVID-19 response.

By studying that model, the Washington State Department of Health says it can find new ways schools can minimize COVID-19 transmissions and outbreaks while still allowing students quality time in the classroom.

In particular, they say a few key findings will be instructive going forward:

• The rate of COVID-19 introduction in schools is proportional to COVID-19 presence in the outside community. This means that, by understanding current trends in their area, schools can better predict the number of cases they might see in the classroom.
• K-5 students are at lower risk than middle or high schoolers. The study also found that K-5 students who were phased-in had 1/4th fewer COVID-19 cases than schools that went straight to a full 5-day schedule.
• High schools are more likely to have large outbreaks. High schoolers have more agency so it's harder to enforce cohorting. High schools are also more populated and the older students are at greater risk of serious illness than young children.
• Intervention can limit transmission between students and staff. Researchers say outbreaks can be kept to a minimum if schools enforce countermeasures like masking and social distancing.

The study also touches on a somewhat controversial issue: the overwhelming majority of Washington's teachers and school staff do not yet qualify for the COVID-19 vaccine, but are still being asked to go back to school.

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Related: WA Expands School Testing To Promote Return To In-Person Classes

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Right now, teachers and staff only qualify for vaccination if they are 65 or older — that's about 7,000 of the state's 136,000 school employees, according to state Superintendent Chris Reykdal. Under Washington's current vaccine distribution plan, teachers over 50 will be eligible during the next phase, but that won't begin until spring or early summer. Some critics have asked that educators either be prioritized to receive the vaccine earlier (other states, like Oregon, have allowed teachers to receive the vaccine for weeks) or be allowed to remain remote.

Despite the pushback, state leaders argue current safety guidance will protect teachers — and the DOH says this new IDM study helps prove that.

"Vaccines against COVID-19 provide high levels of protection to recipients, but because students are likely to be a main source of introductions, vaccinating all staff will not prevent COVID from entering schools," the agency wrote. "Vaccinating staff can also reduce the size of typical outbreaks, but the impact is less than other countermeasures."

In the study itself, researchers note that staff and teachers are only responsible for 11 percent of COVID-19 introductions in schools. They also argue that, while the vaccine is effective for preventing severe illnesses and death, it remains unclear if it stops patients from catching the disease and spreading it asymptomatically.

"While the available vaccines are highly efficacious against hospitalization and death, and also reduce the likelihood of mild symptomatic infections, their efficacy against preventing acquisition of an asymptomatic infection and subsequent transmission remains unknown," reads the report.

While the state is not currently planning on moving teachers and staff up the vaccination queue, the state superintendent has created a program to vaccinate teachers as quickly as possible once they do become eligible.

And researchers say that, even without vaccinating staff and teachers, this new information can help create a safe and sustainable school environment.

“Even when teachers and staff are vaccinated, there are no zero-risk solutions," said Daniel Klein, senior research scientist at IDM. "Yet the most durable finding across all of our analyses is that countermeasures and symptom screening – combined with diagnostic testing in high-transmission settings – can effectively mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in our schools and communities.”

Related: 300K Rapid Coronavirus Tests Headed To More Washington Schools