Pierce County On Cusp Of Rollback To Phase 2: Week In Review

PIERCE COUNTY, WA — Pierce County is in serious danger of being forced back into Phase 2 next week.

The past few weeks of climbing case counts and too-high hospitalization rates have put the county in a precarious position. The Washington State Department of Health (DOH) is expected to announce a decision on the issue Monday, after a review of all 39 of Washington's counties. As part of the governor's Healthy Washington - Roadmap to Recovery plan, every three weeks the DOH judges each county to see if it is fit to remain in its current reopening phase. If Pierce County fails the review, it would be moved back into Phase 2 on Friday, April 16.

Unfortunately, the latest data from the DOH and the Tacoma - Pierce County Health Department (TPCHD), suggest that the county could very likely fail that review — even after a move from the governor Friday which made it harder for counties to fail the test and be pushed back.

Under the governor's new guidance, in order for a county to remain in Phase 3, it must have either:

• Fewer than 200 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per 14 days.
• Fewer than 5 COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 population per 7 days.

Previously, counties only had to fail one metric to be pushed back. Now, a county must miss both metrics. Unfortunately, it appears that Pierce County is failing on both fronts.

The latest update to the Tacoma - Pierce County Health Department's COVID-19 dashboard shows the count with a 14-day case rate of 197.9. That is below 200, but TPCHD's data includes a 7-day lag — in order to ensure data is as accurate as possible, theirs is vetted for a week before it is shared with the public, meaning their case rate represents the 14 days between March 19 and April 2.

The state's COVID-19 Risk Assessment Dashboard, which does not include a 7-day lag and which the DOH will likely use in their review, shows Pierce County with a 14-day case rate of 250.3, well above the threshold.

The county is closer to passing the hospitalization metric. The latest publicly-available data from TPCHD shows Pierce County just barely above the threshold with a hospitalization rate of 5.1 per 100,000 for the week ending April 3. It is possible that the county could have improved and lowered the rate below five in the week since, but not likely: Thursday, Nigel Turner, director of the health department's communicable disease division said the current rate was around 6.2, The News Tribune reported.

It is important to stress that much of this remains up in the air. The state has never rolled back counties into earlier phases before (barring the statewide reset in fall) so the process is new, for residents and health officials alike.

All we know for certain now, is the metrics the state is using to judge each county, and that, according to the latest publicly-available data, Pierce County is failing those metrics. The metrics are close enough that the county could improve by Monday and avoid the rollback, or new data could arise that shows the county is in the clear. We will not know for certain until the DOH announces its decision — and they're not giving hints ahead of time, only saying that several counties could end up being moved back.

"When we look at our data, there are a handful of counties that are at the threshold or above the threshold for case rates and hospitalizations and there is a decent likelihood that a handful will potentially be moved back on Monday," said Lacy Fehrenbach, the department's deputy secretary for COVID-19 response.

All of Washington entered Phase 3 on March 22, allowing for greater indoor capacity at retailers and restaurants, the return of sporting events and concerts and more. Any county that is pushed back into the second phase will lose those benefits.

After the DOH's review Monday, the next phase evaluation is scheduled for May 3.

King County, meanwhile, is likely to remain in Phase 3, as is Snohomish County, which would make Pierce County the state's largest county to fall behind.

It may not fully be the county's fault, however. As the Tacoma News Tribune first reported, a technical glitch in the vaccine distribution system caused Pierce County to under-order COVID-19 vaccines. That under-ordering has caused the county to have lower vaccination rates and thus more opportunities for the virus to spread.

Because of the issue, Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier, Tacoma Mayor Victoria Woodards and several other local leaders have issued a letter asking the state to postpone its review of Pierce County. However, as The News Tribune reports, local health officials did not sign the letter, as they believe the case count rates would've remained too high regardless.

>> Read the Tacoma News Tribune's full report on the issue.

Total coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Pierce County:

Editors note: Patch is updating these totals on a weekly, rather than daily, basis. Readers should keep in mind that the increases below represent infections and deaths over a seven-day period.

The above numbers are provided by the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department, and some numbers differ from the totals provided separately by the Washington State Department of Health.