Pierce County Releases New Metrics Showing How Schools Can Reopen

PIERCE COUNTY, WA — For the most part, Pierce County School Districts are beginning the school year entirely remotely, but almost all have said they hope to bring kids back into the classroom if possible later in the school year.

Now, the Tacoma - Pierce County Health Department has released new metrics detailing exactly when schools should consider allowing more kids to come back to class, and which students should be prioritized for in-person instruction.

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony L-T Chen, Pierce County's Director of Health, announced that, effective immediately, schools are allowed to offer in-person learning in small groups of up to five students and two adults, but only for students in grades K - 5 or those with higher needs. At the time, Chen promised further guidance showing how schools could reopen to even more students going forward— guidance which now is being released to the public.

Under the new regulations, schools should only consider reopen further after considering:

• The rate of coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents over the past 14 days. A "moderate" target range would be a rate of 75 to 25 cases. A "low" target range is 25 of fewer. As of Thursday, the 14-day case rate for Pierce County was 73.5 per 100,000 residents, putting it just barely in the moderate range.
  • In the moderate range, the state only recommends in-person learning for younger students and students with the most critical needs.
  • The low range is more flexible and allows for looser regulations.
• The percentage of positive coronavirus tests and how those tests are trending. Ideally, less than 5 percent of coronavirus tests should come back positive. Right now, the state has a positivity rate of almost exactly 5 percent.
• The trend in new COVID-19 cases by day. The goal is to have case counts stable or decreasing.
• The trend in hospitalizations due to COVID-19. Again, if that number is stable or decreasing, it is safer to reopen.

More information on these metrics can be found here.

But once a school has decided it should reopen more classrooms or shift to a hybrid model, what students should they welcome back first? The health department has an answer for that as well. While the department recognizes that each school is different and will have different needs, generally they recommend that they move slowly: start by reintroducing younger students to the classroom, then potentially begin to transition middle and high school students to a hybrid model rotating days in the classroom and days at home.

As for how quickly they move forward, health experts recommend waiting three weeks between each change, enough time to see if the reopening is having an impact on transmission rates. So, while elementary students may be allowed to return to class now, it may still be several months for high schoolers.

"We have learned it takes about this long for stable or declining COVID-19 disease trends to become evident after policy changes," writes Chen. "Surges and increases in community transmission often become obvious more quickly. Within 7-14 days we can see an upward trend in community transmission."

And the final guideline: schools that have positive cases or outbreaks may need to close their doors again.

Now that these guidelines have been disseminated to Pierce County school districts, Chen says the health department is optimistic they'll be able to work with schools for a safe, smart reopening.

"We are in a much better position today than we were in July and August when schools needed to plan for the beginning of the school year," said Chen. "The significant decrease in our case rate is a success to build upon as we continue to work together to drive down this disease in our community."