Here's The Estimated COVID-19 Vaccine Wait Time In King County

KING COUNTY, WA — The Washington State Department of Health says they expect to receive up to 200,000 doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the month, with regular weekly shipments beginning sometime in January.

But the first round of vaccinations will likely be spent fairly quickly: the state's distribution program prioritizes health care workers and high risk patients, meaning it may be some time before the general population gets their turn.

Here's one way to estimate when you or your family might get their shot: the New York Times, the Surgo Foundation and Ariadne Labs have come up with a way to calculate the number of people who will need a vaccine in each state and county — and where King County residents might fit in that line.

For example, an average 40-year-old King County resident with no professional or health-related special circumstances would be in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States, according to the study.

In Washington, that person would be behind 5.8 million others who are at higher risk,. That's a ways back, considering Washington's total population is only 7.6 million. In King County alone, 1.6 million would be ahead of our hypothetical 40-year-old.

You can input your specific information on the Times website.

Vaccine Rollout

It's worth taking the Times estimation with a grain of salt however. While it's likely broadly accurate, Washington state still hasn't finalized its vaccine distribution plan, and everyone's place in line is likely to shift some until it does.

According to the latest update from the state Department of Health, only one part of the plan is set in stone: the first wave of vaccinations will prioritize healthcare workers serving COVID-19 patients, and the staff and residents of long-term care facilities.

The DOH says, once they're taken care of, then it'll be time to consider who is next:

"What we know for sure right now is that the first phase of vaccination, called 1a, will focus on workers in healthcare settings serving patients who either have confirmed or suspected COVID-19, along with staff and residents of long-term care facilities. We’ll know more about who will be vaccinated in later phases based on input from our community engagement and decisions made by [the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices]. Getting vaccine to the people of Washington is a large, coordinated effort and the timeline for when all eligible people can receive the vaccine is still a work in progress."

Meanwhile, the state is still encouraging health care providers to enroll to distribute the vaccine. Several distributors have already been cleared by the state Department of Health and hundreds more have applied, but the governor stressed that as many as possible need to prepare, so that the vaccine can be distributed evenly across the state.

"Of course, there'll be fairly limited numbers available in the first few weeks of this matter, but again, I hope that anyone in the medical profession, pharmacy industry, can sign up and enroll to be a vaccine provider," Gov. Jay Inslee said at a news conference Monday. "We'd like to get as close to universal coverage as we can."

Related: Inslee Talks Vaccine Distribution, Planning For Economic Recovery