Coronavirus Still Too Active Heading Into Fall, King County Warns

SEATTLE, WA — King County's top health officials are urging everyone to recommit to basic COVID-19 safety precautions, as disease activity remains unacceptably high heading into the cooler fall months and another flu season.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, the health officer for King County, held a news conference Friday to discuss the latest trends and underline the importance of reducing transmission before the weather forces people to spend more time inside, where the risk of infection is much greater.

Since the virus arrived, at least 18,334 patients have tested positive for the virus in King County, and more than 700 people have died. Despite some signs of improvement, case counts remain well above the levels seen earlier in the summer.

"We're having about 130 to 140 cases reported each day over the past week, which is about three and a half times what we had in early June," Duchin said. "It's also important to note that reported cases are only a fraction of all cases."

Duchin pointed to recent data from the Institute of Disease Modeling, where researchers estimated there were 4,500 active infections on Aug. 10.

The virus's effective reproductive number, a measure of whether the outbreak is growing or shrinking, remains above one, indicating continued growth.

Duchin said hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively stable, but indicators have grown since mid-June. Over the last three weeks, King County has recorded weekly death numbers in the high teens, compared to single digits just two months ago. Between July 19 and Aug. 15, at least 181 patients were admitted to King County hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 illnesses.

Social gatherings a key area of concern

According to public health officials, a growing number of people with new infections reported participating in social gatherings without taking proper precautions.

"We've also had many cases that have reported recent social events, including parties, graduation parties, weddings, gatherings of friends and families, travel, group recreation, camping — lots of socializing without masks and without using social distancing," Duchin said. "Our social gatherings have been reported most commonly, but not exclusively, among younger people, people in their teens and 20s."

According to Duchin, the rate of transmission and number of cases today represents a "significant risk for infection," which could further complicate the outlook heading into the fall months. While it still carries risk and requires precautions, the safest setting for gatherings is outdoor areas, which become less feasible as warmer weather wanes.

"We expect COVID-19 to get worse in the fall and winter and people to spend more time indoors where the coronavirus and other respiratory diseases typically are more common and spread more readily," Duchin said. "The best thing we can do to get back to school, to get back to more economic activity, and to decrease the danger from a second outbreak wave this fall and winter, is to get COVID activity as low as possible now."

To achieve that goal, Duchin recommends recommitting to the basic safety measures that health officials have urged for months: decreasing the number of activities outside the home, limiting the duration of contact with others, keeping social circles small, and taking physical distancing and mask use seriously.

Preparing for flu season amid a pandemic

Public health officials are urging residents to get flu shots this year, especially with the lingering potential of another coronavirus wave in the cards.

"Although we can never predict the severity of flu season in advance, the idea, the prospect, the potential for a severe influenza season, or even an average influenza season, compounding the COVID outbreak is very, very disturbing and worrisome," Duchin said.

Another wrinkle, Duchin said, is both illnesses share similar symptoms, which will require equal caution until the coronavirus can be ruled out.

"We don't really know what the interaction between the two diseases may be," Duchin said. "It certainly will be tremendously confusing to have many people with influenza illness, which will look just like COVID at the beginning, and will need to be tested and isolated and quarantined if they develop influenza — as if they had COVID — until COVID can be ruled out. We very much want to promote increased flu vaccination in the community."

While flu shots on average are only 50 percent successful in fully blocking illness, health officials say they are proven to help prevent complications leading to hospitalization and death.

In the weeks ahead, Public Health Seattle & King County will begin outreach efforts to get the message out about flu season and distribute information on how to best access needed safeguards.