Hotter, Drier Summer Forecast In WA After Abormally Dry Spring

SEATTLE — Higher temperatures and sparse rainfall lent to the fourth driest March and April on record in Washington, and the latest outlook suggests a similar scenario continuing through the summer months. Despite a few showers recently, Washington's precipitation totals have kept below average over the last 90 days and dramatically lower east of the Cascades and in Southwest Washington.

The latest federal climate projections show increasing odds favoring a hotter-than-average June through August in Washington and most of the United States and below-average rainfall persisting across the Pacific Northwest.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, close to half of the Lower 48 is already experiencing some level of drought. While impacts are more much more apparent in California and the Southwest, conditions in the Pacific Northwest are getting worse.

Roughly 86 percent of Washington is classified as abnormally dry or already experiencing varying degrees of drought. The state Department of Ecology is paying close attention to potential water supply issues ahead, especially in areas that rely on rain and groundwater, rather than snowmelt.

As the Seattle Times reports, water supply concerns are unlikely to affect Puget Sound, thanks to a robust snowpack from winter storms. However, the situation is increasingly dire for other parts of the state, lending to growing wildfire risks in Central and Eastern Washington and potentially detrimental impacts on agriculture and endangered salmon.

The Department of Ecology writes:

"Abundant snowpack in the Cascades is providing good news in the Yakima River Basin, where both senior and junior irrigators are expected to receive 100 percent of their water supply to grow crops this year. In other areas, the current dry spell is resulting in extremely dry conditions. We see this in some lowland areas, impacting soil moisture in wheat-growing and pasture areas of Southeast Washington, and causing concern in the rain-dependent Chehalis Basin that feeds rivers and streams, and recharges aquifers."

It's too soon to know whether Washington will see drought emergencies this year, which can be declared on a statewide or local level only when two criteria are met:

• Water supply projections at or below 75 percent on average
• Shortages are expected to create "undue hardship"

So far, the conditions in Washington are not as severe. New tools put in place last year allow ecology officials to issue drought advisories as an early warning for areas where water supply issues are developing, and they have yet to issue a drought advisory anywhere this year. Washington most recently declared drought emergencies in 2015 and 2019.