Memorial Day Heat: Unusually Warm Holiday Forecast For Washington

SEATTLE — Western Washington may buck its traditional Memorial Day weather this year, with early signs of a significant warm-up arriving just in time for the long holiday weekend. Typically, the unofficial start of summer arrives in the Evergreen State with mild temperatures, leading into the trademark weather swings of "Juneuary."

This year, forecasters say, it is starting to look like Puget Sound may see a relative scorcher.

On Monday, the National Weather Service shared an early glimpse at its temperature probabilities for the upcoming three-day weekend, predicting ideal timing for a big shift out of the gloomy workweek. By Sunday, temperatures around Seattle and Tacoma may hit 75 degrees and could break the 80s by the holiday Monday.

In general, the odds are highest for the South Sound and lowest for the coast and Snohomish County.

Here are the early probabilities from NWS Seattle:

• Saturday, May 29
  • Chances for afternoon temperatures 70°+
    • Olympia: 77%
    • Seattle metro: 73%
    • Bellingham: 44%
    • Everett: 20%
• Sunday, May 30
  • Chances for afternoon temperatures 75°+
    • Olympia: 87%
    • Seattle metro: 83%
    • Bellingham: 52%
    • Everett 41%
• Memorial Day, May 31
• Chances for afternoon temperatures 80°+
• Olympia: 73%
• Seattle metro: 69%
• Bellingham: 42%
• Everett: 27%

Since the weekend is still a few days away, forecasters caution there's still "a big question mark" regarding exactly where temperatures will land.

"While pretty much all the models are in agreement that a ridge will be over the West Coast, they aren't quite in an agreement in its placement or its magnitude," wrote Mary Butwin, a meteorologist at NWS Seattle. "As of right now, it is safe to say that we should experience a shift in the weather Saturday/Sunday. Things will begin to dry out, it will likely warm up to mid/upper 70s. Some models are suggesting that it could be warmer than that by Sunday but confidence is low. If models continue this trend the beginning of next week could feel a bit like summer, especially in the interior."

Though some unknowns remain, Seattle's early signs of weekend warmth mesh nicely with the latest federal climate predictions, which favor a warm and dry start to June.

The new 8 to 14 outlook is out. Looks like it's time to put my Seattle rainy weather jokes on ice and dig into my vast array of pop culture references from the 80s. #wawx pic.twitter.com/j7gEtBLJoc
— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) May 24, 2021

Before the summer-like temperatures arrive, rainclouds will stick around most areas through the workweek, apart from a brief break Wednesday, when some sunshine should break through. Right now, forecasters say the lingering moisture may spell bad news for night owls hoping to catch this week's total eclipse early Wednesday morning. After a sunny afternoon, rain is back in the cards Thursday and Friday, with temperatures forecast in the low 60s.

Cool and unsettled conditions will continue into Friday. Then, it's onward and upward with temperatures over the holiday weekend. #wawx pic.twitter.com/U7W0jH9JiX
— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) May 24, 2021

More updates on what to expect this weekend will be available as forecasters firm up the details in the coming days.