New Modeling Shows Vaccination Is Shrinking Case Counts

OLYMPIA, WA — A new report from the Washington State Department of Health shows that the vaccine rollout has helped decrease the number of new COVID-19 cases, but also that the vaccine rate will need to grow if the state is going to put an end to the pandemic.

The DOH report found case counts and hospital admissions were declining statewide. As of May 20, 31 of Washington's 39 counties had a 14-day case rate of under 200 cases per 100,000 people. The study contributes the decline to vaccination efforts: in the two-week period ending May 9, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated patients 45-64 was 21 times higher than their vaccinated counterparts. Similarly, unvaccinated patients 65 and older were hospitalized 13 times more than patients in that age group who have been immunized.

Vaccination was also found to have increased overall COVID-19 immunity, with the DOH estimating that 43.5 percent of the total population was immune as of May 20.

Other findings from the study include:

• Case rates are declining in all age groups except among those ages 70 and older. The 70 and older crowd's case rate has remained relatively flat since March.
• Hospitalization rates are declining in patients 20-69. As with case counts, hospitalization rates for those 70 and older have remained low and stable for several months now.
• The total number of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients was also found to be declining as of May 30.

However, some problems remain. The study found that virus' reproductive number was about 0.95 as of mid-May. Any number below one means the pandemic is declining, but that's a very slow decline: it means that 95 percent of COVID-19 patients will go on to infect another person. Case counts are also relatively high, despite the recent decline.

The DOH says both of those problems can be remedied by increasing the vaccination rate.

“We continue to see positive trends, but a significant proportion of our population is still unvaccinated and vulnerable to COVID-19 as our state approaches full reopening,” said Acting State Health Officer Dr. Scott Lindquist. “If you haven’t been vaccinated yet, now is the time to get your vaccine so you can enjoy the benefits of reopening without putting your health and your community at risk.”

To get that vaccination rate up, the state has launched several programs to incentivize getting a shot, the biggest of which is Gov. Jay Inslee's recently-announced vaccine lottery. The lottery begins Tuesday and offers hundreds of prizes in weekly drawings. Pierce County, which has struggled with a lower vaccination rate than its neighbors, is also offering residents a chance to win a round trip flight if they get vaccinated at one of the county's pop-up clinics.

Efforts are also being made to address issues of accessibility and equity. One of the latest is a new "Care-a-van" program from the DOH, which kicked off this week and brings the vaccine to underserved communities or communities where the vaccine was not previously readily available.