WA DOH: Too Soon To Tell If Case Counts Have Plateaued

OLYMPIA, WA — It's too early to say if coronavirus case counts are flattening out in Washington state, according to the latest report from the Washington State Department of Health (DOH).

As the data shows, there have been some signs recently that the curve has started to flatten in a majority of Washington's counties, but health leaders caution against declaring victory too early.

“We are cautiously optimistic about a possible plateau in the most recent data, but we are still in a fourth wave and seeing a number of concerning signs. DOH will continue monitoring these trends closely,” said Acting State Health Officer Scott Lindquist.

If the case counts truly have plateaued, that'll be good news — for both residents and the state economy. Tuesday, Gov. Jay Inslee issued a two-week pause on phase changes in the hopes that the transmission rate would decline. If it does, nearly a third of the state could avoid rolling back into previous phases.

According to the DOH report, the estimated percentage of Washingtonians with active COVID-19 infections nearly doubled in the first half of April. At its worst, it nearly reached November 2020's peak estimate.

Fortunately, at the current rate it appears unlikely the fourth wave will reach the towering heights of the third in winter.

Researchers credit the vaccine rollout for cutting the fourth wave short. The DOH says that, as of April 16, an estimated 31.9 percent of Washingtonians were immunity to COVID-19. Of those, 19.3 percent gained immunity through vaccination. The remainder were immune because they had already caught COVID-19.

Another item of note from the DOH data: coronavirus variants now represent a vast majority of the state's COVID-19 cases. As of Friday, the DOH estimates that 80 percent of Washington's COVID-19 infections were caused by the B.1.1.7 variant, sometimes called the U.K. variant as it was first detected in the United Kingdom back in September. The B.1.1.7 variant was first discovered in Washington back in January. The variant spreads more quickly than the original strain, and doctors have long predicted it would eventually become the dominant strain of the virus, as it now has in Washington.

While the DOH tries to learn more about the spread of variants and works to determine if case counts have truly plateaued, they stress the importance of practicing good hygiene, following COVID-19 safety guidelines, and getting vaccinated if you haven't already.

“No matter what, we all need to keep taking precautions like wearing masks and gathering outside," Lindquist said. "If you haven’t been vaccinated, now is the time to protect yourself, your loved ones and your community. We can all help by talking to people we know about vaccination. Every vaccine makes a difference.”