"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- July 12, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a freelance Political Reporter based in New England, and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio 810-AM San Francisco.

(Londonderry, Vermont) -- We are out on the Presidential campaign trail this week in Vermont. Favorite-son candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is really stirring up the pot in his Democratic primary challenge to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. While many people started by saying, “Bernie who?” he is now surging in many polls. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Who is Bernie Sanders?” – Here are the stats: Bernie Sanders is 73 years old; Jewish; University of Chicago educated; married with four children; and, the only avowed socialist in Congress. Politically speaking, Sanders was first elected in 1981, serving as Mayor of Burlington, Vermont for eight years; then 16 years in the U.S. House; and, now eight years in the U.S. Senate. He is the longest-serving independent Member of Congress in history.

“Latest Polls” – Here’s the story by the numbers. According to the latest CNN/WMUR-TV Poll, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders in Vermont has shrunk to 43 to 35 percent, so with a four-percent margin of error, it is statistically a tie. The new Quinnipiac Poll in Iowa has it Clinton 52 percent to Sanders 33 percent. In Florida the Gravis Marketing Poll has it Clinton 65 percent to Sanders 21 percent. Yes, former Senator Clinton is still in the lead, but Sanders has rocketed from zero in the polls just a couple of months ago, to being a real player in this race.

“His Appeal” – My old friend from Milwaukee, Marie U., recently posted this on her Facebook page: “As I’m getting ready to go to work on this Independence Day, I thought I’d state for the record that I’m supporting U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders. If he wins, and I think he’s got a pretty good shot since most of us are sharpening our pitchforks and lighting our torches, then maybe, just maybe, me and all my friends that own our own small businesses, won’t have to work like dogs to hang on to what we have. Go Bernie!!!!!” I think this reflects a tiredness for the politics of the status quo, and the looming fatigue over potential legacy nominees such as Clinton and Bush. Many people want a new, fresh face. Right now, Sanders has captured their fancy.

“It’s Getting Crowded” – If you think my friend Marie in Wisconsin is just having a pipe dream, guess again. On July 1, 2015 in Madison, Wisconsin – just 60 miles west of Milwaukee – Sanders held a campaign rally that attracted over 10,000 people. It is the largest campaign rally yet of any Presidential candidate - Democrat or Republican. If nothing else, it tells you the natives are restless. Maybe he’ll be a flash in the pan; then again, maybe he’ll be around long enough to be a spoiler. Stay tuned!

“So What’s the Attraction?” – Sanders will have an appeal to a lot of voters – both liberal and conservative – who feel disaffected by our system of government. He has a libertarian streak. On one hand, he has perhaps the most progressive agenda in Congress, supporting wage equality, boosting the minimum wage, and breaking up big-banking, long before it became the rage for the most liberal on Capitol Hill. On the other hand he has done things such as support legislation backed by the National Rifle Association (NRA), so some conservative voters on the far right may like him, too. He strikes people as a libertarian maverick, beholden to no one.

“Show Me the Money, (Not!)” – Sanders is running as an anti-big-money candidate. He promises no Super PAC (political action committee) that would go after the deep-pocket donors. Instead he is pledging to run on small, individual donations. To date – according to his campaign – Sanders has raised $15 million, from just 250,000 small donors. That may be dwarfed by the Clinton campaign war chest, but in many respects the populist Sanders wants this to be a David vs. Goliath fight.

“Campaign Warren-ted!” – The surge of Bernie Sanders may well mean that Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), will not enter the Democratic primary. Warren – like Sanders – is a big anti-Wall Street advocate. Many Democrats – suffering from Clinton fatigue – wanted Warren to be the female alternative to Secretary Clinton. But Sanders and Warren feed at the same political trough and it’s hard to imagine there is room for both in this race. It does tell you that many in the party view the Clintons as being among the same multi-million dollar fat cats, they used to rail against.

“All Bets are Off” – If the nomination were to be decided tomorrow, Hillary Clinton would win it hands down. But, the primary season is still seven months away and a lot can happen. Back in 2012, Republicans had a “Flavor of the week” candidate selection process in which we saw Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich all surge to be frontrunners, only to fade as Mitt Romney finally emerged as the GOP nominee. Is Bernie Sanders the real deal, or just the Democrat’s version of the “Flavor of the Week” in this election cycle? It’s going to be fascinating to watch a guy who was on no one’s radar screen four months ago, but is now on everyone’s watch list.

Who do you like in the Democratic primary? Candidates Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley and Linc Chafee are all out there, and maybe VP Joe Biden, too! Let us know your preference by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2015, Mark Curtis Media, LLC
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