"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- June 21, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis Ed.D., is a freelance Political Reporter based in New England and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio 810-AM San Francisco.

(Charleston, West Virginia) – “Almost Heaven; West Virginia; Blue Ridge Mountains; Shenandoah River!” Those are the opening lyrics from John Denver’s classic song, “Country Roads,” that I hear every time I enter this beautiful state. But it’s also a very political state and West Virginia could once again be a key swing-state in the 2016 Presidential election. I was here this week on business, so let’s “brunch” on that:

“Tie Game!” – You would be hard-pressed to find a more classic swing state. In the past ten Presidential elections, West Virginia has voted five times for Republicans and five times for Democrats. The GOP is on a roll, winning the past four, but that’s no predictor of 2016.

“Moore, Than You Bargained For” – One person to watch in the 2016 Presidential cycle is Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV). She was the first Republican woman elected to the U.S. House and Senate from West Virginia. Right now, she’s not on the national radar screen, but I say she will wind up on the short list for consideration as a vice presidential running mate. She was a State Delegate for four years; a U.S. House Member for 14 years; and is now in the U.S. Senate. She has the resume and depth that Sarah Palin lacked in 2008. She is the daughter of the late three-term Governor Arch Moore, Jr. (R-WV).

“Keys to the White House” – Republicans must do two things to win back the White House. They need to pick up about five percentage points among female voters and five percentage points among Hispanic voters. Now if former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) or Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) is the GOP nominee, then Governor Susanna Martinez (R-NM) is a good VP choice because she is Latina. But if Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) or Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is the nominee, they have the Hispanic base covered, so a running mate such as West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore might be more viable. You heard it here first: Moore has a legitimate shot!

“Hillary Strength” – A female running mate on the Republican side is going to get huge consideration this year. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is going to get a lot of votes – especially from independents – because she would be the nation’s first female President. But Republicans may be able to mitigate that impact by putting a female on their ticket, who is credible and equally appealing to many independent voters. It’s a political game of chess, with a check and checkmate strategy.

“Manchin’s Mansion” – Over the past several years, West Virginia has transitioned from a solidly Democratic state, to one where Republicans now control the legislature and hold four out of five seats in the Congressional delegation. Still, current Governor Earl Ray Tomblin is a Democrat, as is Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV). This is more of a purple state than a solidly red or blue state. Joe Manchin has also been one of Hillary Clinton’s most avid supporters. Back in 2008, when he was still Governor, Manchin staunchly backed Senator Clinton (D-NY) and she won the state primary over Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) by 42 points (photo above). That was the largest margin of primary victory in 2008. By the way, Obama was backed by Senators Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) and Robert Byrd (D-WV), but Clinton crushed him in a landslide. That’s a testimony to Manchin’s clout!

“West Virginia Political Legacy” – The Mountain State is filled with political legends and characters. The aforementioned Senators Jay Rockefeller and Robert Byrd left enduring imprints on state and federal policy. Former U.S. Representative Nick Rahall (D-WV) served 38 years in Congress before his defeat in 2014. Governor Arch Moore, Jr. (R-WV) is one of the state’s few three-term chief executives, who also went to federal prison for corruption in the 1990s. He’s deceased now, and his misdeeds certainly have caused no harm to his daughter’s political career, nor will they in 2016. It’s a politically fascinating state that I predict will be in play in 2016.

“Who Are Your Neighbors?” – Here’s another reason to keep your eyes on West Virginia in 2016. It is bordered by five other states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, and Kentucky. Right off the bat, Maryland is likely to go Democratic in 2016, while Kentucky should be as easy win for Republicans. But, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania will all joining West Virginia as battleground states. When you have a cluster of four states in the toss-up category, what happens in one, could affect another. Certainly you will see a big influx of candidate visits in all four.

“It’s Not Over, til’ it’s Over!” – While so much of the focus will be on the first caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, don’t forget the potential significance of late primaries, especially in a competitive race. In 2008, Hillary Clinton’s huge primary win in West Virginia came on May 13, and was a critical part of her comeback. We did not learn the Democratic nominee that year until June 1st. With at least a dozen candidates in the 2016 race, Republicans are likely to be late picking a nominee, so the May 10th West Virginia primary could still loom large on that date.

Do you have any predictions yet on 2016? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo: Mark Curtis Media, May 13, 2008