8 CA Congressional Races That Could Help Shape The State's Future

LOS ANGELES, CA — Democrats swept into the U.S. House majority in 2018 in what was dubbed the "blue wave," but in California it was really more of a bloodbath. Back then, Democrats cut the Golden State’s GOP delegation almost in half by wrestling away six seats long held by Republicans. But what a difference two years makes.

Allegations of sexual misconduct chased a star freshman Democrat from office in the 25th District, while the Republican congressman in the 50th District is headed to prison for misusing campaign funds. Now, the races to fill both seats are competitive. And despite the political headwinds facing Republicans nationwide and in California, Republicans have a real shot at wrestling back some of the seats that flipped two years ago. Democrats are favored in the polls to retain the House and take the Senate along with 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., but state Republican officials believe 2020 could be a comeback year in California.

In all, eight California congressional races are rated competitive by The Cook Political Report. But don’t expect to know the outcome on Election Day. In 2018, a handful of the closest races took days and even weeks for all votes to be tallied. With a record voter turnout — the one outcome that is all but certain this election season — it may take several days for tight races to be called.

SEE ALSO: California’s 2020 Propositions Explained

The 48th and 39th: Will Orange Stay Blue?

Once again, Republicans and Democrats are wrestling for the soul of Orange County with two very close congressional races in the famously conservative county. The county went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (the first Democrat favored in Orange County since Franklin D. Roosevelt), and the whole county flipped "blue" in 2018. However, the GOP is betting that was a fluke. The party is putting considerable money into the races to flip two of those seats back. Unlike in 2018, they have the president’s coattails to ride this election season. The bet is that Trump voters will help prop up Young Kim in the 39th District and Michelle Steel in the 48th District.

Fred Smoller, a professor of political science at Chapman University, wouldn’t take that bet.
“All the Democrats will be re-elected,” he predicted.

According to Smoller, the president is so unpopular in California that he’s likely to be a drag on congressional candidates.

“The Republicans are tied to Trump, and they’re also tied to the pandemic,” Smoller said.

A prime example is Steel, who is trying to wrestle the 39th District back after Rep. Harley Rouda unseated longtime Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher in 2018. As an Orange County supervisor, Steel voted against an ordinance to require masks in the food industry, businesses and pharmacies, and she was a vocal proponent of the summer’s reopen movement centered in Huntington Beach.

“Donald Trump has a very strong, intense base here, but they are a minority group,” Smoller said. “They are loud. They are vocal, but they only get to vote once.”

Places such as Orange County are seeing unprecedented turnout among early voters, and that favors Democrats, said Smoller. With one week before the election, about two thirds of the ballots returned in Orange County were from Democrats, he said.

Additionally, the president’s gambit of encouraging his base to vote in person on Election Day instead of by mail may backfire on him, Smoller said. In a reversal of the normal trend, it’s the voting centers in conservative communities that could have longer lines. Long lines can deter voters.

But OC Republican Party chairman Fred Whitaker told Voice of OC the Trump base is fired up and will help take back the seats lost in 2018.

“In our congressional races and our legislative races, the president being on the ballot drives the base … even though the president lost Orange County (in 2016), we won all the congressional and legislative seats,” Whitaker told Voice of OC.

He also said voters in Orange County blame Democrats for the coronavirus shutdown.

“It’s a self-inflicted economic wound here in California, and somebody’s going to have to pay the price, and that’s going to be the Democrats,” Whitaker told Voice of OC.

The Cook Political Report has the Orange County’s 48th District leaning in Rouda’s favor and the 39th District as likely to go for Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros.

The Tumultuous 25th

In nearby Los Angeles County, Rep. Mike Garcia is battling to keep the seat he won this year in a special election to replace former Rep. Katie Hill after she quit amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Garcia, whose seat is the only Republican district left in all of Los Angeles, isn’t shying away from the unpopular president, a calculation that counts on the enthusiasm of conservatives voters in the last bastion of conservatism left in Los Angeles.

“He’s done a good job on the international stage, I think he’s done a great job with the economy,” Garcia told NBC. “We will get through this COVID crisis. You know, we’ve learned a lot, and we’re going to get stronger as a result.”

Garcia faces Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who beat him in the March primary before losing to him in the special election to complete Hill’s term. She has tied her opponent to Trump’s climate change denial and efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. The race is considered a toss-up.

Courting The Right In The 50th

In San Diego County and Riverside counties, the Republican candidate to fill former Rep. Duncan Hunter's seat in the 50th District is no newbie. For nearly 20 years Darrell Issa represented the nearby 49th District, which included parts of Orange County. Confronted with the blue wave in 2018, he opted not to run for re-election. But he’s back in the 50th, where the race is leaning Republican, according to The Cook Report. But it’s a surprisingly competitive race for a district that has long been conservative.

Former Barack Obama White House intern Ammar Campa-Najjar is running in the 50th two years after losing to Hunter by 4 percentage points. Though running as a Democrat, he has been courting conservatives, promising to uphold conservative values including Second Amendment rights and border security. The strategy seemed to be working over the summer when polls had the two candidates running neck and neck, but a poll released Tuesday by the San Diego Union-Tribune and 10News, had Issa running away with the race by 11 percentage points.

The Rematch In The 21st

One of the tightest races is in the rural 21st District just outside of Fresno. Democratic Rep. TJ Cox unseated three-term Republican David Valadao in 2018 by fewer than 1,000 votes. It was a stunning victory that came weeks after Election Day when Valadao was up by more than 4,000 votes. But as the mail-in ballots were counted, Cox pulled ahead. Now, Republicans are fighting to flip the seat they see as one of their best chances for a gain Election Day. It’s been a brutal campaign the Los Angeles Times described as “parental discretion advised for political ugliness.”

The district is majority Latino and working class. Major voting issues in the region focus on agricultural water rights and immigration.

Like many of his fellow Democratic candidates, Cox is tying Valadao to the president.

“You have a president that has absolutely no respect for the Latino community,” Cox told the Los Angeles Times. “He insults them at every turn, calls them rapists and murderers. ... The Donald and David show was hurting people of the valley. They stood up and made their voices heard in 2018, and they’re going to do it again in 2020.”

Valadao is largely steering clear of the president, telling ABC30 that if he gets his old job back, he’ll focus on "Making sure we have a clean, reliable water supply for our communities, for our farmers. It's something that we struggle through no matter what. Commonsense business policy, good immigration policy."

The race is rated a toss-up by The Cook Political Report.

Tempting Targets In The 22nd And 4th Districts

The remaining two competitive races are rated “Likely Republican.” They’re perennial temptations for the Democratic Party, but they’ve long remained just out of reach.

In the 22nd District, Rep Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) has led Democratic challenger Phil Arballo in the polls the entire election season by as much as 14 points and as few as 5 points. But more than any member of the House, he is seen as a Trump attack dog, making him a tempting target for liberals in California. It’s also made him something of a hero on the right, earning him votes in the Republican-leaning district as well as a massive campaign war chest. This election cycle, he has raised $23,622,000 compared with Arballo’s $4,390,937, according to OpenSecrets.org.

Similarly, Democrats are competing in the 4th District, which runs deep red. Longtime Rep. Tom McClintock is leading in the polls, but not by much. Active in state Republican politics since the '70s, McClintock has solid name recognition, and Democrats are itching to turn his sprawling rural district including the suburban edge of the Sacramento Valley blue. Democratic challenger Brynne Kennedy has outspent McClintock $2,429, 403 to $1,578,308, according to OpenSecrets.org. Still, McClintock has held polling leads from 3 to 6 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The 10th District

Swept into office in 2018 on the blue wave, Rep. Josh Harder, a venture capitalist, is in a tight race to keep his seat in the northern San Joaquin Valley. The race has been surprisingly tight given an explosive report by Politico in May centered on Republican challenger Ted Howze’s social media posts denigrating Muslims, DREAMERS, and a school shooting survivor while also accusing prominent female Democratic politicians of murder and drug abuse.

For his part, Howze denied being the author of the posts on his social media account, saying he mistakenly authorized someone else to have access to his accounts. He denounced the posts as "negative and ugly ideas." His supporters don't appear to be holding the issue against him. A Siena College/The New York Times Upshot poll released Oct. 23 shows Harder leading by anywhere from just 2 to 9 points.

Both candidates have made health care a focal point of the race. Harder says he will continue to fight for more testing and protective gear and a more aggressive strategy for combatting the pandemic than Republicans have put forth. Howze promised to fight for reduced health care costs.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Democratic.