California Exodus More Fiction Than Fact, Study Finds

LOS ANGELES, CA — Though billionaire Elon Musk may have left California in a high-profile huff, the fabled exodus of fed-up Californians is but a myth, according to a University of California survey released Wednesday.

The state is experiencing slow enough population growth to lose a congressional seat for the first time in history, but residents aren't fleeing the state en masse. A consortium of universities including UCLA set out to assess the long-standing "California Exodus" story in order to direct state policy to focus on the changing needs of residents and population patterns.

What they found was that California has real challenges — namely housing affordability — but its residents aren't giving up on the Golden State dream just yet.

"From housing affordability to post-pandemic recovery, California is faced with solving a daunting number of existential challenges," UC Regent John Perez said. "Sliced and diced by geography, race, income and other demographic factors, our efforts have produced a clearer picture of who perceives California as the Golden State versus a failed state.

"The empirical data will be, at once, disappointing to those who want to write California's obituary, as well as a call to action for policymakers to address the challenges that have caused some to lose faith in the California Dream," he continued.

Formed in fall 2020, the project includes studies conducted by scholars at UCLA, UCSD, UC Berkeley, Stanford and Cornell University. The research draws on public opinion data, the U.S. Census, consumer credit histories, homeownership rates, venture capital investments and information from the Franchise Tax Board.

The survey of 3,000 Californians revealed an 8% decrease in the percentage of Californians who called the state one of the best places to live, down from 50% in the 2019 poll to 42% in the 2021 UCSD poll.

The poll found that affluent Californians are the group most satisfied with the direction of the state and very likely to believe that it will be a better place when today's children grow up. The analysis of nearly two decades of Franchise Tax Board data demonstrated no flight of millionaires away from California despite multiple tax increases levied on higher earners in recent years.

"Despite the popular notion of unhappy Californians leaving the state en masse, our robust research shows there is actually no exodus," said Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department at UCSD and the lead researcher of the most recent survey.

The UCLA study found the number of those moving out of California to other states has trended up since 2012, but is similar to levels last seen in the mid-2000s.

The UCLA research also shows Americans between the ages of 25-39 are moving at roughly double that of middle-age or older people. While moving into California remains elevated for younger people through 2019, the combination of some decline coupled with those moving out of state has driven down the number of younger people moving into California overall.

The number of Americans aged 60 and older moving into California has fallen since 2014, while more elderly Californians are moving out of state. The number of younger and older residents moving out of California has also trended up since 2014.

Among U.S. destinations, Texas and Washington were at the top of the list among younger people, whereas low-cost and proximate areas of Nevada and Arizona dominated destinations among older Californians.

Fewer than 5% of foreign-born immigrants who arrived in the United States during the prior two years left California.

UCSD recently conducted a survey that found the percentage of Californians who plan to leave the state has remained static over the past two years: 23% percent of California's voters reported that they were seriously considering leaving the state, compared to 24% found in a 2019 survey conducted by UC Berkeley.

The UCSD survey also found:

-- By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, Californians said they still believe in the "California Dream" -- that it's a great place to live and raise a family. Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and younger Californians are more optimistic, while middle-class Californians, white respondents, older residents and Republicans are more pessimistic;

-- Those living in parts of the state that have not been part of recent economic expansions are most likely to contemplate moving;

-- Middle-class Californians making incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the most concerned about the state of California Wednesday as well as its future;

-- There is a gap between the percentage of Democrats -- 21% -- and Republicans -- 30% -- seriously considering moving.

-- Asked to look ahead 10 years, 35% of respondents believe it would be better if the population decreases significantly and 46% want it to stay about the same. Only 19% of those surveyed said that the state would be better if its population increases.

It also found there is no evidence that wealthy households are leaving the state in large numbers, around two-thirds of people who moved out of San Francisco remained within the 11-county Bay Area economic region, while 80% remained in California, which is consistent with trends in prior years.

Lastly, the UC-led project features analysis from Cornell University sociology professor Cristobal Young on which states are getting the most venture capital investment.

California's share of venture capital dollars rose from one-third in 1995 to more than half throughout the 2010s. In the first quarter of 2021, the state's share of VC funding stood at 48%, slightly below trend but consistent with normal year-to-year fluctuations.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.