'Clouds In The Sky': Delta Variant Looms Over CA's Reopening Week

CALIFORNIA — In the same week that California's governor celebrated the state's reopening with Optimus Prime in Hollywood, Great Britain's prime minister announced that his country, which is smaller than the Golden State, would delay its reopening day to ward off the surging Delta variant.

California's numbers are worth celebrating. But is the state throwing mask mandates and capacity limits to the wind too soon? As is the case with most pandemic-related questions, it's complicated.

"The juxtaposition, I think, is really interesting — things opening up in California [today] and things closing down in England [on Monday]," Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor of vaccinology and infectious disease at the University of California, Berkeley, told Patch.

This week, Patch spoke to two experts about California's grand reopening as the Delta variant spreads across the world — Swartzberg and Dr. Timothy Brewer, a professor of infectious disease at the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles.

'Variant Of Concern'

The Delta variant was labeled as a "variant of concern" by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week and is reportedly twice as likely to send an unvaccinated infected person to the hospital as the B.1.1.7 variant first detected in the U.K., according to a Monday report published in Scotland.

First discovered in India, the Delta variant is on its way to becoming the dominant strain in the U.K., and it accounts for about 6 percent of cases in the United States. In California, about 286 cases of the variant had been reported as of June 9.

While this is concerning, the good news is that those who are vaccinated will have a strong level of protection against it.

"There's no reason to assume that these variants will completely escape an immune response from vaccinated people," Brewer said. "For example, we know that variants that have similar mutations, such as the South Africa one, there are data to show that, particularly the mRNA vaccines still provide protective immunity — albeit at a lower level — so I would assume they'll similarly perform against the Delta variant."

Nearly 55 percent of California's adult population is vaccinated, and 72 percent of Californians 18 and older have received at least one shot, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday. But that leaves a sizable chunk of people who would have little defense against the deadly variant and its various mutations — not to mention all the other coronavirus strains that are present around the world as Americans resume travel plans.

"California is doing wonderfully well, and the United States as a whole is doing quite well, but there are some real clouds in the sky," Swartzberg said. "While we're doing very, very well right now, I am concerned about how much virus there is in the world still, and specifically the Delta virus emergence here in the United States."

While the Delta isn't considered to be widespread in California or the U.S., Swartzberg said cases have been steadily growing.

That growth "could be exponential," he said. "So I'm personally going to proceed more cautiously."

'Moving Beyond Masks' (sort of)

"Finally we are here, June 15, to turn the page ... and, yes, as you saw me walk up to the stage, move beyond face coverings and move beyond wearing these masks," Newsom said at a conference at Universal Studios on Tuesday.

California has lifted its mask mandate. Well, for the most part anyway.

There are still several places where Californians will need to mask up — including public transit, transportation hubs, health care settings, K-12 campuses, correctional facilities and homeless shelters.

What's more, masking requirements for Californians working indoors with other human beings are still up for debate.

While the state has mostly lifted its mask mandate, those working in grocery stores, for example, will need to keep their masks on at least until Thursday, when California's workplace regulators vote on new coronavirus rules for workers.

All of these asterisks to the state's masking rules are sure to evoke some head-scratching from Golden Staters.

"The guidelines that have been issued from time to time have been confusing," Brewer said. "But some of the confusion is just the time required to learn about the virus and its epidemiology."

"But I do think that the more complicated you make the recommendations, the more caveats you put in, the more difficult it will be for people to understand and follow that, even for people who are trying to do the right thing."

Swartzberg echoed that sentiment: "That's going to create too much confusion," he said. "And I think that inconsistency is not workable."

Basically, residents should still carry a mask at all times.

Also, the state is leaving it up to business owners and venue operators to decide whether they will keep a mask mandate in place or require proof of vaccination for patrons.

"That puts the onus on owners of stores and and other places of business ... and I think that's inappropriate," Brewer said.

"Either you need the mask or you don't need the mask, but they shouldn't leave it to store owners to have to decide, 'Do I require everybody to wear masks? Do I figure out some way to find out if people have been vaccinated? Do I just go on the honor system?' It doesn't really seem like it's fair to business people to be trying to make public health decisions."

'This Pandemic Is Not Over'

Swaths of California gladly reopened Tuesday, with Disneyland opening its doors to out-of-state visitors and San Francisco's cable car service resuming.

But even Newsom — who arguably never looked happier stepping into game show host territory on Tuesday — warned that the pandemic was diminished, not defeated.

"This is not a day where we announced mission accomplished," Newsom said. "We need to encourage people to be thoughtful, to be judicious, mindful of these mutations, mindful of the variants all around the rest of the world, mindful that not everybody is doing as well as the state of California."

Despite California's progress, the California Nurses Association issued a dire plea Monday to reconsider shedding masks in some situations the state deemed safe.

"Please, please just keep your masks on when you are indoors and in crowds," said Zenei Triunfo-Cortez, an RN and a president of the CNA. "It’s such a simple but effective way of preventing Covid-19. This pandemic is not over. We still have upwards of 10,000 new infections and hundreds of deaths per day. Not even half the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. And some of the new variants are highly contagious and incredibly troubling. Please keep on masking to protect yourselves and your families."

Swartzberg said he'd rather err on the side of caution as California continues to grapple with conflicting guidelines and the possibility of a spike in Delta variant cases.

"I would put the needle more towards what CNA apparently is saying than what the governor is going to be saying," Swartzberg said. "I've been fully vaccinated for a long time, but I'm not going to be going indoors without a mask on unless everybody I know who's indoors with me is fully vaccinated."

As experts, health care workers and the state tussle over how to proceed with masking rules, Swartzberg advises Californians to go with whatever level of comfort feels right.

"I think the issue is very nuanced," Swartzberg said. "It's not a binary issue either.

"I think each individual is going to have to try and find a sweet spot for themselves. By that I mean, some people have a greater degree of comfort with not wearing a mask in certain circumstances where others won't, and I think everybody has to feel and do what they are most comfortable with."