Delta Variant Poses Threat To LA Recovery, Health Officials Warn

LOS ANGELES, CA — Los Angeles County reported its highest daily number of new COVID-19 infections in nearly three months, and new cases are growing exponentially, something not seen since the surges of last year. Despite the troubling trend, the widespread immunity from vaccinations and previous infections will likely ward off the kind of surges that led to on-and-off-again shutdowns in 2020.

That doesn't mean Los Angeles is out of danger.

“We have enough risk and enough unvaccinated people for Delta to pose a threat to our recovery, and masking up now could help prevent a resurgence in transmission,” County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.

"Given that we have large numbers of unvaccinated people in Los Angeles County — 4 million in total, including 1.3 million children not yet eligible to be vaccinated — another wave could become a very real possibility," she told the Los Angeles Times Thursday.

The spikes in cases and infection rates is likely due to the combination of widespread reopenings and the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The true cause for alarm, said Ferrer, is the disproportionate impact the spike is having on the Black community. The least vaccinated of demographics, the new cases are hit Black communities the hardest.

According to numbers released by the county Department of Public Health, 506 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Friday, more than double the average daily number the county was reporting in mid-June, when the state and county virus restrictions were lifted.

The county's rate of people testing positive for the virus held steady at 1.2% on Thursday, but that's triple the rate the county was reporting on June 12, and a jump from the 0.8% rate reported just last Friday.

The number of people hospitalized in the county due to COVID-19 also continued a steady upward march, with state figures putting the number at 280 as of Thursday, up from 275 on Wednesday and 255 on Tuesday. There were 74 COVID patients in intensive care units, down slightly from 76 on Wednesday.

County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said officials are still crunching the numbers, but increases in cases and hospitalizations over the past month appear to be concentrated largely in the Black community, which also has the lowest rate of vaccinations.

Thus far, the upward trend in cases and hospitalizations has not led to a corresponding increase in deaths, which remain low. The county reported six new deaths on Thursday, raising the countywide death toll from the virus to 24,489.

The increases come amid growing national concern about the "Delta" variant of COVID-19, which is believed to be far more contagious and potentially able to cause more severe illness. Ferrer said the county has now confirmed 245 cases of the "Delta" variants, nearly double the number from last week. The county conducts limited sequencing tests needed to identify the variants, so the number cannot be extrapolated across the population. But given the increasing prevalence of "Delta" among identified virus variants in the county, Ferrer said it's clear there is "increasing circulation" of the variant in the community.

She again stressed that existing vaccines provide strong protection against the "Delta" variant, but so-called "breakthrough" infections of people who are fully vaccinated do happen. And those people -- while at low risk of becoming seriously ill -- could potentially spread the infection to others, Ferrer said.

According to figures released Thursday, of the roughly 4.5 million county residents who are fully vaccinated, there have been 2,190 documented "breakthrough" infections, for an infection rate of 0.048%. a total of 192 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized with COVID, for a rate of 0.0042%, and 20 have died, a rate of 0.0004%.

Ferrer insisted the numbers prove that vaccines are extremely effective in fighting the virus. But she said even at extremely low infection rates, thousands have been reinfected.

It wasn't known how many of those breakthrough cases documented in the county involved the "Delta" variant. Ferrer noted that last week, when the county had identified 123 "Delta" variant cases, only 10 of them involved fully vaccinated people.

She said that while small, the chance that fully vaccinated people could potentially be infected with the "Delta" variant or any form of COVID- 19 contributed to the county's call this week for everyone -- regardless of vaccination status -- to wear masks in indoor public settings.

The county's suggestion, which is only a recommendation and not a health order, has led to some criticism for sparking confusion among residents who were told just two weeks ago they could drop their face masks if fully vaccinated.

Ferrer again defended the recommendation Thursday, noting that there are more than 4 million residents who remain unvaccinated in the county and are at risk of infection, particularly with growing spread of the highly contagious "Delta" variant.

More than 10.4 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the county. The latest numbers show that 59% of residents aged 16 or older are fully vaccinated, while 68% have received at least one dose. The numbers are higher among seniors, with 76% of people 65 and older fully vaccinated, and 87% with at least one dose.

In hopes of encouraging more people to get vaccinated, the county is continuing to offer incentives. Beginning Friday and continuing until next Thursday, anyone who gets vaccinated at sites operated by the county, city of Los Angeles or St. John's Well Child and Family Center will be entered for a chance to win one of four ticket packages for the Huntington Library, Descanso Gardens, Los Angeles County Arboretum and South Coast Botanic Garden. The packages include an annual membership to the Huntington and one-day passes to the other facilities.

City News Service