Indoor Dining, Movies And More Could Return To LA This Month

LOS ANGELES, CA — Angelenos could return to their favorite restaurants and movie theaters as early as this month with Los Angeles County teetering on the brink of the state's threshold for widespread reopenings.

Los Angeles just barely missed the cutoff Tuesday as seven other counties were allowed to move into the state's less-restrictive red tier for reopening under the governor's "Blueprint for a Safer Economy." The county's average daily rate of new COVID-19 infections sits at 7.2 per 100,000 residents. The threshold to emerge from the state's restrictive purple tier is 7 infections per 100,000 residents for a steady two weeks. At the current rate of declining cases, Los Angeles County will meet that threshold by next week and would be eligible for reopenings two weeks later.

If Los Angeles County can meet the threshold for the red tier, it would mean the closest thing to a return to normal in LA since the start of the pandemic. Retailers could reopen at 50 percent capacity, restaurants could serve customers indoors at 25 percent capacity, and museums, aquariums and movie theaters could reopen at 25 percent capacity. Even gyms would be allowed to hold indoor activities at 10 percent capacity.

"L.A. County is very close to meeting the metric thresholds for the less restrictive red tier in the state's Blueprint for a Safety Economy, which will provide our county with more opportunities to reopen for additional activities," county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement Tuesday. "Since there is still widespread transmission occurring in our county, we are hoping we do not see increases in the number of daily cases in the upcoming weeks that will pause our recovery journey and cause more hospitalizations.

"With an increase in the circulation of variants, we need to ask our residents, workers, and businesses to continue following the safety measures and implement Health Officer Order directives, including wearing a mask and physically distancing from others not in your household to prevent spread," she said.

By some metrics, Los Angeles County is seeing some of the most positive signs of the pandemic. The COVID-19 vaccines are helping. More than 2 million doses have been administered across the county.

Ferrer said the daily average testing-positivity rate over the past seven days has dropped to about 3%

"That's actually the lowest it's ever been since we've been offering testing in the community," Ferrer said. "So yes, testing is down, but community transmission is also down as well, and that also drives a reduced demand for testing -- less people have symptoms, less people feel sick, less people feel like they've had an exposure."

She noted that at the beginning of January, the testing-positivity average was about 20%.

"We are moving in the right direction, a direction that will hopefully lead to us moving forward on our recovery journey, where more of our young people can go back to school for on-site learning," Ferrer said.

Ferrer said the county's average number of daily new COVID cases has fallen below 1,000, marking a return to "the levels we saw before the (winter) surge. These declines are real and we're grateful for the choices made and the work done by everyone -- individuals and businesses -- that is making this possible."

Los Angeles County's testing positivity rate is 3.5% and the equity quartile is 5.1%, both good enough to actually qualify the county for the even less-restrictive "orange" tier of the four-level state blueprint. To advance to that tier, the county's new case rate would have to drop to between 1 and 3.9 per 100,000 residents.

The county has been on the verge of exiting the "purple" tier before, meeting all the required metrics last fall. But the county was unable to maintain the metrics for the required two-week period, as case rates began to rise and eventually devolved to the winter surge.

Even if the county does move up to the "red" tier, it would still be up to county health officials to decide whether to actually loosen the business restrictions. Counties are permitted to impose more stringent restrictions than the state.

The state updates tier assignments for all 58 counties every Tuesday. To advance to a less-restrictive tier of the state's blueprint, a county must meet all three metrics required by the state for at least two weeks.

To advance to the "red" tier, the county needs a new daily case rate of between 4 and 7 per 100,000 residents, along with an average testing positivity rate of 5% to 8% and a "health equity quartile" -- a measurement of a county's efforts to control the virus in disproportionately impacted communities -- of 5.3% to 8%.

The county's state-adjusted rate of new cases has been rapidly falling in recent weeks, falling from about 28 per 100,000 residents three weeks ago, then dropping to 20, then to 12.3 last week.

As a result of lower demand for tests, COVID testing is now being offered without appointments at all county- and Los Angeles city-operated testing sites, although people can still make appointments if they wish.

Ferrer also noted dramatic drops in cases and deaths among health care workers -- who were the first people in the county eligible to receive the COVID vaccine. She said that during the week of Nov. 29, more than 1,800 cases were reported among health care workers, but during the week of Feb. 14, only 69 cases were reported.

The number of deaths among health care workers fell from 21 the week of Jan. 3 to two last week.

"Health care workers also experienced a surge in cases in late fall through the winter," Ferrer said. "Now, as cases overall have declined, and as so many of our health-care workers are fully vaccinated, cases have dropped to the lowest they have ever been since the beginning of the pandemic.

"... We're really relieved to see this, not only because our health- care workers, who have been (on the) front lines from day one of this pandemic, are seeing the decreases, but also because this graph is one of the first visible signs of the power of the vaccine to decrease our cases."'

Ferrer expressed optimism about a single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine now being approved for emergency use, and said doses will arrive in the county as early as this week, joining the two-dose Moderna and Pfizer vaccines already being administered.

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine will be distributed at many of the county's vaccination sites, but while it may become a preferred option because it only requires one dose, people will not be able to choose what medication they receive.

"All three of the vaccines are extraordinarily powerful and in clinical trials they were all 100% effective preventing hospitalizations and deaths," Ferrer said. "Please know when you come to a site, it will be very important to just accept the vaccine that's being provided, as all of the vaccines that we have and that we're able to offer have protected people from serious illness that requires hospitalization and from death."

With more groups of workers becoming eligible for vaccines on Monday, Ferrer again urged people not to make vaccination appointments if they are not in an eligible group. She said health officials "constantly get reports" about people gaming the state's MyTurn computer system to make appointments regardless of their eligibility.

"If you were able to make an appointment but you're not in one of the eligible groups, please cancel your appointment," she said. "Don't take away an appointment from an eligible worker and please don't come to the vaccination site, because you will need to be turned away."

At the county's mass vaccination sites, vaccine appointments will be divided up for each segment of essential workers on the following days:

• Tuesday and Thursdays for food and agriculture workers
• Wednesdays for emergency frontline workers
• Fridays open for all eligible groups
• Saturdays for early child care and educational workers

The county on Tuesday reported another 91 COVID-19 deaths, along with 1,407 new cases. The county's overall death toll now stands at 21,554.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.