LA Could Reach Herd Immunity In July; Vaccine Eligibility Expands

LOS ANGELES, CA — Los Angeles County health officials shifted the timeline for achieving herd immunity from the coronavirus locally due to the slowing pace of vaccinations Monday. Now, Los Angeles is on track to achieve herd immunity by mid to late July instead of June, according to county public health officials.

Toward that end, the county is working to establish a web portal that will allow people to arrange for a mobile vaccine team to visit specific work sites.

Officials estimate that herd immunity or community immunity will be reached when 80 percent of residents have been vaccinated. With higher rates of vaccination in Los Angeles County than in other parts of the country, there is reason to be optimistic that the region can achieve herd immunity. Already, vaccination rates among the county's older residents have exceeded 80 percent among groups that have had access to the vaccine the longest. Overall, as of Friday, nearly 8.5 million doses of vaccine have been administered in the county -- more than 5.1 million first doses and more than 3.3 million second doses.

The shifting timeline comes as federal officials authorized the use of the Pfizer vaccine on residents aged 12 to 15 of which there are about 500,000 in Los Angeles County. Anticipating the growing pool of vaccine eligibility, county health officials last week opted not to shut down mass vaccination sites unlike neighboring Orange County. Instead, Los Angeles officials are doubling down on efforts to make the vaccine easy to access with appointment-free shots and mobile clinics.

"We're currently getting about 400,000 vaccinations into the arms of L.A. County residents each week, and we have probably over 2 million more first doses to go until 80% of all L.A. County (residents) aged 16 and older will have received at least one vaccine," Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said. "At the rate we're going, we expect that we can reach this level somewhere in mid- to late-July. But that assumes that we continue to at least have 400,000 people vaccinated each week. That would include both first does that people need, as well as their second doses."

However, there remain hurdles — namely lagging vaccination rates in minority communities. And the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations is slowing in Los Angeles County.

Early in the vaccination effort, health officials had estimated the bulk of the county's population would be inoculated by the end of June. Ferrer blamed the significant drop in demand for vaccines in recent weeks for the new timeline for herd immunity.

Efforts are now focusing on harder-to-reach communities, with mobile clinics expanding in hopes of reaching populations that have been lagging in the vaccination efforts — either through hesitancy to get the shot or an inability to easily reach a vaccination site.

Reaching that level, however, will require improvements in vaccination rates among select communities. According to figures provided Monday, only 38% of Black residents in the county have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 42% of Latinx residents. That compares to 60% of white residents and 68% of Asians.

When looking at the numbers by age, older residents -- who have been eligible for shots much longer -- have the best rates, with 86% of residents aged 65-79 receiving at least one shot, and 73% of those aged 80 and up.

But among the youngest eligible residents, those aged 16 and 17, the rate is just 34%, along with 45% of residents aged 18-29, 54% of those 30-49 and 65% of residents 50-64.

Ferrer said there are 755 sites in the county currently offering vaccines, and she noted that all county and Los Angeles city sites -- along with many mobile and community sites -- are not requiring advance appointments for people to get vaccinated.

"We want to make it super easy to obtain a vaccine if you live in these communities," she said.

The county announced just four new COVID-19 deaths on Monday, although numbers tend to be lower on Mondays due to reporting lags from the weekend. The deaths, however, pushed the county's death toll across the grim 24,000 milestone, reaching 24,003.

Another 179 cases were confirmed by the county, raising the total from throughout the pandemic to 1,235,797.

According to state figures, there were 374 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Los Angeles County as of Monday, with 79 people in intensive care. Ferrer said last week the county's average number of daily hospitalizations has fallen to a level not seen since the pandemic was declared in March 2020.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.