LA Seemingly Immune From Another Coronavirus Surge

LOS ANGELES, CA — The first week of yellow-tier openings in Los Angeles County saw the rate of coronavirus infections continue to fall, prompting some experts to predict that the region is largely immune from an outbreak as devastating as the winter surge was.

The immunity appears to be a silver lining from the devastating winter surge combined with an unprecedented effort to vaccinate millions of Angelenos.

With theme parks, outdoor venues, schools, indoor bars and restaurants newly reopened without a nascent sign of increased transmission, officials are optimistic the governor's goal of a statewide economic reopening is doable. The state's weekly release of county-by-county COVID metrics showed Los Angeles County's average rate of daily new infections falling to 1.4 per 100,000 residents. The rate last week was 1.6. The county's testing-positivity rate held steady at 0.7%, while the positivity rate in lower-income, hard-hit communities dipped from 0.8% last week to 0.7%.

“I am optimistic,” said Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health told the Los Angeles Times. “I think that we are going in the right direction — we will never have a surge like we had during the viral tsunami of the post-holiday season, just because now we have so many people vaccinated, and so many people have got natural immunity from having had the disease.”

Though hope is in the air, so are the warning signs. The rate of vaccination is slowing in Los Angeles and the disease is still spreading in the community. The county confirmed another 18 COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday, while Long Beach health officials reported one more, lifting the death toll from throughout the pandemic to 24,021.

Another 224 COVID infections were also confirmed by the county, while Long Beach reported 26 and Pasadena three, for a pandemic total of 1,235,999.

According to state figures, there were 379 people hospitalized in the county due to COVID, up from 374 on Monday.

As the virus continues to spread in the community it may reach pockets of residents who haven't been vaccinated. The result could be isolated surges among those communities, health officials warn.

The county has turned its focus on getting the vaccine to hard-to-reach communities and making headway with residents who are vaccine-hesitant. Los Angeles County health officials also said they are prepared to begin administering the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to youth aged 12-15 as soon as federal officials give it final approval, which is expected to happen Wednesday.

"The most powerful tool to maintain our recovery progress is the vaccine and the most important work in front of us is to make it easier for residents to get vaccinated," Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a statement. "With vaccination eligibility set to expand later this week to include adolescents between 12-15 years of age, there will be more opportunities to get vaccine into more arms to save lives and to build the county's protection against COVID-19. Getting vaccinated is the way we end this pandemic."

Ferrer said Monday if the county can maintain its pace of administering about 400,000 doses per week, "herd immunity" could be achieved by mid to late July. Health officials are estimating that 80% of county residents will need to get vaccinated to reach that point.

County officials had earlier estimated that the bulk of county residents could be vaccinated by late June. But demand for the vaccine has tailed off -- both in the county and statewide -- in recent weeks.

Vaccines are now being offered without appointments at all county- and city-run vaccination sites, while authorities are emphasizing mobile clinics that reach into neighborhoods with low rates of inoculations.

According to figures provided Monday, only 38% of Black residents in the county have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 42% of Latinx residents. That compares to 60% of white residents and 68% of Asians.

When looking at the numbers by age, older residents -- who have been eligible for shots much longer -- have the best rates, with 86% of residents aged 65-79 receiving at least one shot, and 73% of those aged 80 and up.

But among the youngest eligible residents, those aged 16 and 17, the rate is just 34%, along with 45% of residents aged 18-29, 54% of those 30-49 and 65% of residents 50-64.

The county established a web portal Monday that allows people to arrange for a mobile vaccine team to visit specific work sites.

On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized the use of the Pfizer vaccine on residents aged 12 to 15. The move still needs to be approved by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but that is anticipated to occur by the end of the week. Ferrer estimated there are about 500,000 people in the county in that age group.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.