LA Sets Coronavirus Record; Stay-Home Orders Could Come By Sunday

LOS ANGELES, CA — Los Angeles County reported its highest number of new cases Thursday — a record 5,031 confirmed infections. It prompted county health officials to warn that strict stay-at-home orders could come as soon as Sunday. At the current rate, Los Angeles County risks overwhelming hospitals while racking up death tolls, health officials warned.

The county's daily new caseload has spiked from about 1,400 at the start of the month to more than 5,000 on Thursday, a rate of increase that portends a difficult winter. If the county's daily COVID-19 cases continue at the pandemic-high level reported Thursday, the county could find itself under a strict stay-at-home order as early as Sunday, Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis warned Thursday. Such an order would allow only essential workers and people accessing essential services to leave their homes.

Under guidelines released Tuesday by the county Department of Public Health, if the county experiences a five-day average of 4,500 new cases a day, or if hospitalizations exceed 2,000, the county will return to the strict Safer At Home orders that were imposed at the onset of the pandemic.

Davis said that with Thursday's record case number, the county now has a two-day average of about 4,500 cases — the threshold for implementing the stay-at-home restrictions.

"That is only a two-day average, and we still have a few more days to go, but if the numbers remain high, potentially by Sunday we could have the five-day average higher than what we would want to see and would need to implement a Safer At Home order," he said. "It wouldn't be today or anytime tomorrow or the day after. We would need five days of an average in order to make that decision."

In an online briefing, Davis repeatedly lashed out at those who have deemed COVID-19 to be a hoax.

"The cases that we're seeing, all of the science — this is across the world," he said. "I don't think anybody engineered a hoax to be worldwide in terms of a pandemic, let alone across the state, let alone across the region, let alone across the whole United States. These are real, these are scientific tests that are being done. The virus has been isolated from early on in the pandemic. ...

"Really that's a lot of undue credit to say that this is a hoax and this was just made up in order to do some other things, whether political or not. Based on the science that we see, this virus is real. Based on the case counts that we see, based on the tests that are being done, all of this is real. ...

"It's unfortunate that someone thinks that this isn't real."

He also refuted notions that the virus is less dangerous than the flu, noting that an estimated 3,133 people died during the 2019-20 flu season in the county. COVID-19 has caused 7,363 deaths between March and November, despite only infecting about one-third as many residents as the flu.

"COVID-19 has caused more deaths even though it has infected fewer people," he said. "This should serve as a severe demonstration of how much more dangerous COVID-19 is than the flu. It is deadlier and people can become very sick, sometimes for weeks and months. In addition, we're still learning about this virus, but we do already know that for some the complications can last for a long time."

On Thursday, the state issued a "limited Stay At Home Order," requiring all nonessential work, movement and gatherings to halt between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. in counties in the state's most restrictive "purple" tier of the coronavirus-monitoring system. All Southern California counties are in that restrictive tier. The new order will take effect at 10 p.m. Saturday and remain in effect until 5 a.m. Dec. 21.

Don't miss local and statewide news about coronavirus developments and precautions. Sign up for Patch alerts and daily newsletters.

Much has changed since the last time the outbreak surged in California. Treatments for coronavirus have improved, helping to reduce the death rate. However, ominously, the surge in new cases in Los Angeles coincides with a nationwide surge, stretching resources and testing the nation's capacity to deal with outbreaks from coast to coast.

The nation's top medical associations joined together with an open letter to Americans Thursday, imploring them to refrain from well-intentioned but dangerous Thanksgiving gatherings.

"With Thanksgiving and the holiday season fast approaching and a deadly COVID-19 pandemic surging, we – the physicians, nurses, hospital and health system leaders and public health professionals on the front lines of this pandemic – strongly urge everyone throughout our country to celebrate responsibly, in a scaled-back fashion that limits the virus’s spread, to help reduce the risk of infecting friends, family and others you love," wrote the American Hospital American Medical and American Nurses associations. "Throughout the pandemic, COVID-19 spread has followed a similar pattern around holidays and mass gatherings. Positive cases spiked after Memorial Day, after the Fourth of July, after Labor Day, and now – two weeks after Halloween. The record-shattering surge underway is resulting in uncontrolled community spread and infection that has already overburdened health systems in some areas and will ultimately consume capacity of our health care system and may reduce the availability of care in many places in our country.

SEE ALSO: Outbreak Fueled By Small Get-Togethers, Puts LA In Tough Spot

"We must protect the doctors, nurses and other caregivers who have tirelessly battled this virus for months. You can do your part to ensure they can continue to care for you and your loved ones.

In Los Angeles, younger people have been driving the current outbreak. The statewide curfew, in part, is designed to stop people from attending social gatherings, which have been blamed for much of the current outbreak.

LA County Public Health Department Director Barbara Ferrer said Monday residents between 18-29 have consistently accounted for a larger proportion of new cases over the last two months, dramatically widening the gap over all other age groups. But while younger people are becoming infected more often, it is older residents suffering the consequences in terms of hospitalizations, she said, meaning young people are becoming infected and passing the virus to older residents who are at higher risk of severe illness.

Los Angeles County is also reporting another 29 deaths Thursday, raising the death toll to 7,363.

Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county's director of health services, stressed that current projections indicate the county will see its highest number of hospitalizations since the pandemic began in the next four weeks, potentially outpacing hospital capacity.

Ghaly warned that an increase in hospitalizations is almost inevitable in the next two weeks, given the virus' incubation period. And the current trend lines indicate that without a dramatic change in case numbers, area hospitals could find themselves quickly overwhelmed with patients.

"While the steep increase in hospitalizations has only been going on for one week, we cannot ignore the facts," Ghaly said. "... If we look at the range of uncertainty going forward ... then the projected trend over the next four weeks is concerning. ... The message is very clear. It is highly likely that we will experience the highest rates of hospitalizations that we have seen in the COVID-19 pandemic to date in the next month, unless we take action immediately to substantially reduce transmission within our communities."

The estimated rate of COVID-19 transmission in the county -- the average number of people every coronavirus patient infects with the virus -- was 1.18 as of Wednesday, an increase from last week's 1.03 rate, and rapidly approaching the pandemic-high rate of 1.26 recorded in late July during the summer surge.

Ghaly noted that if hospitals start becoming overwhelmed, they'll be forced to discharge less-serious patients and cancel elective procedures. She noted that the onset of flu season will place additional strain on the health system, heightening the need for increased COVID-19-control measures.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING STORY. PLEASE REFRESH THE SCREEN FOR UPDATES

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.