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If Republicans win the U.S. Senate, which polls show the party poised to do, there are a handful of highly competitive Golden State Congressional races that could deliver the House to the GOP as well. In such a scenario, a Donald Trump presidency would go unchecked.

There are more competitive house races in California than any other state. Much like polls showing the race for the presidency tightening in recent weeks with Kamala Harris slipping in a number of swing state polls, similar surveys have shown California's House races tightening as well.

Whichever party wins the bulk of the Golden State races currently rated as toss-ups, will be in a position to win control of the House. Both parties know that, and that is why California's congressional races that were starved for national funding in 2020 and 2022 have turned into some of the most expensive naitionwide this year.

Both parties see races in the nation's most populous state as crucial battlegrounds and are pumping millions of dollars into campaigns that stretch from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond groves and vineyards of the Central Valley farm belt.

Two years ago the state played a pivotal role in securing the gavel for Republicans. Now only a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies.

California has 52 House seats — more than any other state — and 10 are considered in play. About half of those are viewed as toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin statewide. But Republicans retain pockets of strength and picked up four House seats in 2020.

California districts rated as competitive by Cook Political Report include:

Toss-Up

• CA-13 currently held by John Duarte (R)
• CA-22 currently held by David Valadao (R)
• CA-27 currently held by Mike Garcia (R)
• CA-41 currently held by Ken Calvert (R)
• CA-45 currently held by Michelle Steel (R)

Leaning Democratic

• CA-47 OPEN (Katie Porter is not running for reelection)
• CA-49 currently held by Mike Levin (D)

Likely Democratic

• CA-09 currently held by Josh Harder (D)

Likely Republican

• CA-03 currently held by Kevin Kiley (R)
• CA-40 currently held by Young Kim (R)

The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.

In fact, many of those districts were long-time GOP bastions until Trump ascended to the national stage repelling many Southern Californias Republicans known for being fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

California's electorate has shifted dramatically in the last decade, with the gap between registered Democratic and Republican voters growing.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, there are about 22 million registered voters who will receive a vote-by-mail ballot. The Golden State could easily shatter the turnout record set in 2020. Now, 46 percent of the state's registered voters are Democrats compared to 25 percent who are Republican, roughly the same as the state's likely voters.

At least on paper, Democrats have more than enough registered voters to seize a cluster of Republican-held districts. The lingering question, as in the past, is will they vote?

Democrats are likely to benefit from an elevated turnout in a presidential election year, with Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator and attorney general, leading the ticket. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.

Democrats are warning about former President Donald Trump's possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and gun violence. Republicans fault Democrats on crime, a porous southern border, high taxes and inflation that is squeezing household budgets.

Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking House Democrat, who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, has predicted the decisive fight for the chamber “will run through California.”

In California, the Democracy Alliance and California Donor Table is teaming up with unions and pouring resources into six districts — all but one are currently held by Republicans. The group hopes to flip them from red to blue. They are going after Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Clavert and Steel, and trying to keep Orange County's District 47 blue now that Porter is stepping down.

According to NBC News, Battleground CA hired more than 150 canvassers to go door to door six days a week and 100 phone bankers to follow up with calls and texts. The group claims their effort resulted in 70,000 face-to-face conversations.

The Republicans’ Congressional Leadership Fund planned to spend $40 million in California this election compared to $33 million two years ago, Politico reported.

“We’ve made significant gains in blue states over the last two cycles, thanks to strong Republican candidates, key investments and swing voters fed up with Democrat governance run amok,” Congressional Leadership Fund president Dan Conston told POLITICO. “The same dynamics are at play this cycle.”

No other state has seen a larger increase in outside spending on Congressional races between 2022 and 2024 than California.

The Following six races are considered the most competitive statewide:

The fighter pilot and the never-ending battle: District 27

Democrats keep coming for Rep. Mike Garcia.

The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former Navy pilot who flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has displayed a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an 11-point Democratic registration edge. He is being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.

The once-conservative 27th District runs through suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, was first elected running against California’s liberal-leaning government. “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become,” he said at the time.

Whitesides, who also is a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he would use his business experience to solve problems. He has spotlighted Garcia's opposition to abortion rights, labeling him an extremist.

Garcia put out a statement to clarify his stance on the issue, saying, “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s law on abortion stays the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”

National Republicans have run ads depicting Whitesides as soft on crime. Garcia, like other GOP candidates, has been attacking his rival and other Democrats on inflation and taxes.

Garcia’s military service is an asset in a district that is home to defense industries and popular with veterans, Los Angeles police officers and firefighters. The son of a Mexican immigrant father, his Hispanic surname also is beneficial in a district with a significant Latino population.

Garcia is one of a handful of 19 vulnerable House Republicans who won in a district that went overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in 2020, and since then, the district has tilted leftward slightly due to redistricting. Through September, Whitesides had raised $8.6 million to Garcia's $5.6 million and went into the final month of the election with more cash in-hand, according to Ballotpedia.

A University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona poll in mid September showed Whitesides with a two-point lead among likely voters.

Democrats look to hold a coastal district with GOP roots: DISTRICT 47

Orange County once was considered a conservative holy ground, where white, suburban homeowners delivered winning margins for Republicans year after year. It's considered a foundation block in the Reagan revolution. But the county, which lies southeast of Los Angeles, has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time, like much of the state.

The seat from the 47th District, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surf breaks, is occupied by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite who in 2022 narrowly defeated former Republican state legislator Scott Baugh. Porter, known for grilling CEOs during Capitol Hill hearings, stepped aside to run for U.S. Senate but lost in the primary. Baugh is making another run for the seat, this time against Democratic legislator Dave Min.

National Republicans have called the seat a top target.

Given the stakes in the closely divided district, the contest has been especially rancorous. Min ads call Baugh a corrupt “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights.

"For too long, corruption has been synonymous with Orange County politics, and my opponent Scott Baugh is a big part of the problem," Min claims. "As a CA legislator, Baugh was indicted for 22 counts of campaign finance fraud. As Chair of the OC GOP, Baugh oversaw a massive voter fraud scheme that led to 3 staffers going to jail on felony convictions."

For his part, Baugh says Min's “extreme liberal views” are out of step with the district.

"Because of (Min) your gas prices will rise by 65 cents. His voting record proves he only grandstands when it’s politically convenient and fails to take a stand when it really matters," he posted on Facebook. "Californians are fleeing the state because of the rising cost of living. Families are tired of high gas prices, and you should have enough money each month to save, not just scrape by."

With a week left in the race, polling analysts at 538 have Min with a slight lead over Baugh , through recent polls show Baugh gaining momentum. In a sign of how serious the national Democratic Party is about the 47th district, Former President Bill Clinton stumped for Min in Westminster heading into the final week of the race.

Democrats aim again at a long-serving Inland Empire Republican: DISTRICT 41

Rep. Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in California's congressional delegation, having been first elected in 1992. Two years ago he held off Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins by about 5 percentage points, and Rollins is back for another try.

The 41st District is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties: Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer have been among the recognized Democrats fundraising for Rollins.

National Republicans have called Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert brings the advantages of incumbency, but his conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district that includes many transplanted Los Angeles residents and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ+ voters. Rollins is gay.

Rollins says it’s time for new leadership and has called Calvert an extremist whose views don't match the district.

All year polls have shown the two running neck and neck, though the polling gurus at 538 give Calvert the edge going into the final week of the campaign.

By mid October, Rollins' campaign had raised more $11.5 million compared to Calverts $7.5 million. House Speaker Mike Johnson stumped for Calvert, who also boasted the endorsement of the California Chamber of Commerce. He touted his experience as a small businessman and focused his campaign around economic issues such as inflation, and painted Rollins as an out-of-touch liberal.

Outside groups are also making their presence felt in the expensive Los Angeles-area ad market. Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign had reserved about $6.9 million in ad buys as of Mid October, according to AdImpact. Republican groups and the Calvert campaign had reserved about $5.8 million in advertising time.

"His campaign is the same basic theme: that I'm corrupt and that I've been around too long and that there needs to be a change, except it's on steroids," Calvert told Eyewitness News. "On a lot of money advertising the same thing. I was a business guy and they've been running against me on these same things a long time. But I know he wants to raise taxed on small businesses and gas tax."

For his part, Rollins scored the endorsement of the Palm Springs Police Officers Association, which praised his career as a federal prosecutor. Rollins painted Calvert as corrupt and highlighted his support for a national abortion ban with no exceptions and opposition to the bipartisan infrastructure bill and its $300 million in funding for Riverside County.

In a rare campaign visit to California in October Republican nominee Donald Trump spoke near the district, telling the crowd “everybody needs to get out and vote for Ken.” Calvert also spoke at the rally and appealed to voters concerned about the cost of living and crime.

Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at California State University-Long Beach, said the addition of Palm Springs, with its large LGBTQ population, to Calvert's district has changed the political dynamic dramatically. He's anticipating a tight contest, just like in 2022.

“Can Calvert bring his old district, those people that he knows, up against this army of Palm Springs people?” Lesenyie said. “I think it comes down to mobilization. Maybe that last run for Rollins gave him a foothold on organizing so that it could push him over the line.”

Farm belt conundrum: Republican holds sway on Democratic turf DISTRICT 22

By the numbers, the Central Valley's 22nd District should be a Democratic stronghold. The party holds a 14-point registration edge over Republicans. But GOP Rep. David Valadao has kept a grip on the seat nonetheless.

He held the district from 2013 until January 2019, lost the seat for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox. Democrat Rudy Salas is trying to claim the seat this year after losing to Valadao in 2022.

In a region sometimes called America’s salad bowl for its vast agricultural production, Valadao has stressed his efforts to secure more water for farmers and willingness to work across the aisle, while depicting Salas as a tax-and-spend Democrat. “David has ignored partisan bickering and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” the Valadao campaign said in a fundraising pitch.

Salas, considered a moderate, has depicted Valadao as a Trump follower posing as a centrist. In Congress, he says, he will fight for lower drug prices, expanded health care and clean drinking water, which remains a chronic problem in some rural communities.

Valadao was one of few House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump. It's not something he's reminding his base nearly as much as Democrats are.

The two remained virtually tied in most polling since summer, but 538 gives the incumbent a slight edge of nearly two points as of the final week of the race.

After a 564-vote loss, a Central Valley Democrat gets a rematch: DISTRICT 13

In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte is facing Adam Gray, the Democrat he defeated two years ago by one of the closest margins in the country, 564 votes. Duarte often is listed among the House's most vulnerable Republicans, given that narrow victory.

Another factor is the 13th's Democratic tilt, which is about 11 points over registered Republicans. There also is a large Latino population, similar to other Central Valley districts, but the most likely voters statewide tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in getting to the polls.

Both candidates have been stressing bipartisan credentials.

Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer, says his priorities include curbing inflation and crime and securing adequate supplies of water for farmers, a perennial issue in the valley.

Gray, a former legislator, has criticized state water management and puts water and agriculture at the top of his issues list. He also says he wants improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.

Going into October, Gray had outraised and outspent Duarte by roughly $1 million, but Duarte had more cash in-hand heading into the final month of the election. Polling has been limitted, but Gray appeared to have a slight edge, and 538 forecast a 5-point victory for Gray heading into the final week of the race.

Another tough fight in a district created to empower Asian Americans: DISTRICT 45

Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, is seeking a third term in the 45th District, which was specifically drawn to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill.
The largest demographic in the district, which is anchored in Orange County, is Asian Americans, and includes the nation's biggest Vietnamese community. Democrats hold a 4-point registration edge.

The district is one of the most ethnically diverse, and though it represents Little Saigon, it has never had representative with Vietnamese roots.

Steel first won the seat in 2020 and then again 2022 with a 5-point win. This year she faces lawyer and worker rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.

Steel has been outspoken in resisting tax increases and says she stands strongly with Israel in its war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always stand with Israel,” she said in a recent email. She advocates for more police funding and has spotlighted her efforts on domestic violence and sexual abuse.

Steel has staked out stances opposing abortion rights and gay marriage and the Equity Act, which prohibits discrimination based on sex and sexual orientation.

Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights. Steel opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, while not going so far as to support a federal ban. Tran also says a Trump return to the White House would put democracy at risk.
The race will be watched nationally for hints about the preferences of Asian American voters.

Steel has outraised and outspent Tran considerably. As of mid October, she had raised $9.4 million to his $5 million. Polling and forecasters show Tran and Steel at a dead heat going into Election Day.

In a sign of house serious the Democratic Party is about this race, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.