El Nino to Rescue California from Drought?

The lush, green grass covering California’s rolling hills has faded to shades of gold and tan. Typical for June. Now, the waiting game is on to see if the El Nino that’s building strength in the Pacific is powerful enough to produce drought-busting rain next fall and winter.

For longtime California residents, El Nino is a magical phrase. The climatological phenomenon has produced stormy winters that fill reservoirs, turn landscaping into paradise and make us forget that much of our state is arid. But El Nino has a dark side—downpours that cause flooding and mudslides.

Bill Patzert, climate analyst at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, likes our chances, “It’s pretty big in terms of size and intensity. This thing looks as promising as anything I’ve seen in the last ... 18 years,” he told the Sacramento Bee.

More Drought Coverage:

• Brown the New Green? Hah! Not When There’s Paint!
• Galling! 50 Million Gallons Gone
• California “Has Only About One Year of Water Supply Left in its Reservoirs”

The Washington Post reports that some computer models for El Nino point to “a strong to very strong event by the fall. Some simulations even suggest it could exceed the mighty 1997-98 event, the most powerful in modern records.”

A “very strong” El Nino boosts California rainfall by an average of 174 percent. At LAX, the average is an astounding 209 percent.

But each climatologist cautions that placement of storms is key. California desperately needs an epic snowpack to replenish depleted reservoirs.

If El Nino is going to make an impact in California this year, we should start seeing storms in September, with heavy winter rains arriving in November. Get your rain barrels ready.