Sonoma Valley Unified Enrollment Could Drop 10% By 2028: Study

SONOMA VALLEY, CA -- The Sonoma Valley Unified School District could experience a more than 10 percent decline in student enrollment within the next 10 years, according to a newly released analysis by a district-hired consulting firm.

Two schools within the district – Sassarini Elementary and Adele Harrison Middle School – could see enrollment drop by more than 20 percent drop within the next decade, according to the analysis, which was prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, a public-school consulting firm.

The firm’s findings were presented Tuesday, Sept. 17 during a public study session at the meeting of the Sonoma Valley Unified School District Board of Trustees.

As part of its analysis, Davis Demographics mapped the district, studied student demographic data, and developed a 10-year student population projection.

By 2028, DDP forecasts there will be 10 percent fewer students attending Sonoma Valley schools, with declines most precipitous at Sassarini (29 percent), Adele Harrison (22 percent), and SVHS (16 percent). The remaining campuses are projected to see nominal increases in student populations, with Flowery (plus 0.7 percent) and Prestwood (plus 5.8 percent) representing the range.

In an interview with the Sonoma Index-Tribune, school district Associate Bruce Superintendent Abbott said the district was expecting the results of the analysis.

“We’ve seen a significant reduction in the last ten years, and it flattens out going forward. It moves into middle and high school in the next five years, and we’re going to see the drop show up there,” Abbott said.

The decline could result in significant changes across the district.

“As we shrink in size, we would have to rethink our staffing plans or reduce programs,” Abbott told the newspaper. “But I hope as our scores improve over time that more and more families will send their kids to our schools.”