COVID Numbers Tick Up, Riverside County's Unvaccinated At Risk

RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CA — Has California's June 15 reopening increased the spread of coronavirus, and will the July 4 holiday weekend mean numbers might trend upward in coming weeks?

Probably, according to the California Department of Public Health.

"Some increase of cases in remaining unvaccinated persons is anticipated after removing restrictions and increased mixing," the CDPH told Patch in an emailed statement.

But how much?

In Riverside County, the total coronavirus case count has increased by 1,407 since the end of last month, and hospitalizations have edged up, health officials said Wednesday.

According to the Riverside University Health System, the total number of COVID cases recorded since the public health documentation period began in March 2020 was 303,062 as of Wednesday, up from 301,655 on June 29. The county is now updating its COVID figures only once a week, on Wednesdays.

Eyebrow-raising increases in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations continued Thursday in Los Angeles County. The single-day figure of 839 new cases represented a 165 percent increase from the daily number reported a week ago, according to Los Angeles Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.

LA County's COVID hospital patients numbered 320 Thursday, and the rate of people testing positive for the virus doubled from last week.

Local, state and federal health officials have maintained that it takes two to three weeks after an event like the reopening or Independence Day holiday to see case increases. While the state is just now seeing the impact of the June 15 reopening, any post-July 4 uptick won't reveal itself until later this month.

"It’s possible we will see isolated outbreaks in communities with low vaccination rates," the CDPH said of the statewide situation. "The timing of these will vary. These outbreaks will have real impacts to families, including loss of loved ones, because COVID-19 remains a deadly virus and it continues to circulate in our communities."

A total of 4,648 deaths from virus-related complications have been recorded in the last 15 months in Riverside County. On June 29, the number of fatalities stood at 4,627.

The number of COVID-positive patients in hospitals throughout Riverside County was 68 as of Wednesday, compared to 50 on June 29. That number includes 12 intensive care unit patients, one less than a week ago. The figures are considerably lower than what was experienced a year ago when virus spread was causing significant concern at local hospitals and no vaccine was available, but the numbers are trending up.

What do the statistics reveal about immunity? Seroprevalence estimates published by CDPH provide insight on the percent of adults (18 and older) who have detectable COVID-19 antibodies. The figures don't distinguish between people who have antibodies from vaccination alone versus infection, the CDPH cautioned, but the state agency estimates a seroprevalence of 86 percent for California adults. CDPH has limited data on seroprevalence for children but said the figure is likely to be lower than adults because kids under 12 years old are not eligible for vaccination.

The CDPH's seroprevalence estimate for the Southeast region — which includes Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange, Inyo and Mono counties — is 88 percent.

While those figures may sound promising, there is still a large population of unvaccinated people and those without any antibodies who are vulnerable to serious illness from COVID infection. The percentage of fully vaccinated Riverside County residents ages 12 and older stood at just 46.8 percent Wednesday, according to RUHS data. Statewide, the figure was higher — 60 percent.

"The risk for COVID-19 exposure and infection will remain in California until we reach community immunity with vaccinations," said Dr. Tomás Aragón, CDPH director and state public health officer. COVID-19 vaccines provide excellent protection from serious disease, even for the Delta variant. COVID-19 vaccines are safe, effective, and free."